[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230015
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED 825 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES
NEAR 36N44W IS INCREASING ITS CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND
THUS LOOKING MORE TROPICAL.  THE LOW IS PRESENTLY DRIFTING NE.
THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
SYSTEM WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS MOSTLY W AND N OF THE CENTER FROM 35N-38N BETWEEN
46W-49W...AND FROM 37N-39N BETWEEN 44W-46W.

...TROPICAL WAVES AND TROPICAL LOWS...
A 1010 MB LOW IS LOCATED S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 6N22W
MOVING W AT 15 KT.  THIS LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS IS FROM 4N-11N BETWEEN
23W-27W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10.  LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  CONVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 28W-36W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 10-15 KT.  WELL DEFINED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING IS NOTED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  AN EMBEDDED LOW LEVEL SWIRL IS NE OF THE
MAIN AXIS NEAR 14N43W THAT MAY DEVELOP INTO A SEPARATE LOW IN
THE FUTURE.  CONVECTION IS AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN
44W-49W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING
WEST 15 KT.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LOCATED E OF THE WAVE AXIS
NEAR 15N72W MASKING THE LOW LEVEL WAVE CURVATURE.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER E CUBA FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN
75W-77W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS ALONG 5N8W 6N20W 9N40W 9N50W 8N60W.  BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W
AFRICA FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN 12W-16W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 8N-11N
BETWEEN 52W-56W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A 1012 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF T.D. TEN IS CENTERED OVER S
MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N90W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE
LOW TO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 26N90W 23N92W.  E OF THE
TROUGH AXIS SURFACE WINDS ARE 10-20 KT FROM THE S.  W OF THE
TROUGH AXIS SURFACE WINDS ARE 5-10 KT FROM THE N.  FURTHER E...
A GOOD AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS ADVECTING N FROM THE NW
CARIBBEAN TO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 80W-88W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER S TEXAS
NEAR 27N97W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF AND TEXAS W
OF 90W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS E OF 90W.  EXPECT
CONTINUED CONVECTION E OF 90W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 78W.  SEE ABOVE.  A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 18N88W MOVING NW.
SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N-21N BETWEEN 85W-89W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER E
OVER CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 78W-83W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER N VENEZUELA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 68W-72W.  SURFACE
TRADES ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN
NEAR 19N84W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
NEAR 15N72W.  EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS NW OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N69W.  A LONG SURFACE
TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS SW TO E OF THE
LEEWARD ISLANDS ALONG 32N40W 27N45W 23N55W 15N59W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 38W-42W...FROM
23N-27N BETWEEN 44W-57W...AND FROM 15N-22N BETWEEN 55W-58W.  A
1025 MB HIGH IS E OF THE AZORES NEAR 38N20W.  A SURFACE RIDGE
EXTENDS SW TO THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 23N40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS
... A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W.  A TROUGH IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 50W-70W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 14N45W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N23W.

$$
FORMOSA





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