[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 221756
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT...AMID CYCLONIC TURNING IN THE LOW CLOUD
FIELD AROUND THE WAVE. ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN
29W AND 32W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS IN
THE ITCZ ARE FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 29W AND 34W...AND POSSIBLY
NOT BEING INFLUENCED BY THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 44W/45W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
9N TO 10N BETWEEN 45W AND 46W...AND FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN
47W AND 48W. HIGH CLOUDS ARE CURVING ANTICYCLONICALLY ACROSS
THE AREA OF THIS WAVE SOUTH OF 20N BETWEEN 32W AND 55W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 15 KT. SOME SMALL AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC TURNING
APPEARS TO BE NEAR 14N78W IN VISIBLE IMAGERY. SHOWERS IN
A SMALL BURST OF PRECIPITATION ARE FROM 13.5N TO 14N.5
BETWEEN 78W AND 79W.

...THE ITCZ...
4N7W 5N20W 8N29W 10N43W 9N46W 7N54W 7N60W. A 1012 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 5N21W...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 21W AND 22W...FROM 6N
TO 9N BETWEEN 23W AND 24W... AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 23W
AND 24W. ONE LONE CELL OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 11N22.5W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 2N TO 6N
BETWEEN 20W AND 30W...AND WITHIN 100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N43W
11N50W 7N55W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS CUTTING
ITSELF OFF FROM THE REST OF THE FLOW...MOVING NORTHEASTWARD
INTO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA.
A TROUGH RUNS FROM THE LOUISIANA CYCLONIC CENTER TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...TO ACAPULCO MEXICO. THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND INTERIOR MEXICO SOUTH OF 30N WEST OF 90W AND SOUTH
OF 30N EAST OF 104W IS COVERED BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/
SUBSIDENCE. THE 1009 MB REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN IS IN SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI. A TROUGH EXTENDS
FROM THIS LOW CENTER SOUTHWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TO 24N88W.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND
IT PASSES NORTHWARD THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WESTERN CUBA
INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE CENTRAL SECTION OF THE
FLORIDA WEST COAST NEAR 27N/28N. WARMING CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
IN AN AREA OF SHOWERS FROM 27N TO 31N BETWEEN 87W AND 89W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N86W 25N84W 29N83W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 13N85W...ACROSS
HONDURAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND FINALLY JUST OFF THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA NEAR 22N89W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF 90W IN THE AREA OF
BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC
OUTFLOW. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 15N71W. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE
AREA FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 67W AND 78W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS EAST OF 67W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN AREA OF A COL IS FROM 20N TO 21N BETWEEN 63W AND 64W...
CONSIDERING THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 15N71W CYCLONIC
CENTER...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA EAST OF
67W...FLOW AROUND AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR
25N71W...AND THE 32N53W 27N59W 23N60W ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH
ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE 32N53W 23N60W TROUGH SUPPORTS THE
SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH 32N40W 29N42W 22N56W 15N59W. A SECOND
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 27N54W. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 56W AND 57W...AND
FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 57W AND 58W. WARMING CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBLY REMNANT SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 54W AND 57W...AND FROM 30N TO 32N
BETWEEN 38W AND 40W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE TROUGH WITHIN
60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N38W 27N42W 25N51W 23N54W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 31N23W.
CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NORTH OF 23N BETWEEN
AFRICA AND 35W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 22N39W TO 26N33W
BEYOND 32N28W.

$$
MT

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