[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 220536
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN IS NOW INLAND OVER W FLORIDA CENTERED
NEAR 30.6N 87.1W 9 NM NE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MOVING NW NEAR 8
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THIS IS THE
LAST NHC FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/
WTNT25 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC.
SEE PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION
CENTER UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS TCPAT5/WTNT35 KWNH FOR MORE
DETAILS. RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW BROKEN BANDS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ROTATING AROUND THE
DEPRESSION. ACTIVITY REMAINS IN THE N GULF N OF 28N AND HAS
SPREAD WELL INLAND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE W OF PANAMA CITY
AND S ALABAMA NEAR MOBILE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 17N29W TO 4N27W MOVING W 10-15 KT.
NARROW LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS WITHIN THE ITCZ WITH A VERY BROAD
FAINT INVERTED-V CURVATURE. WAVE IS BENEATH A BROAD UPPER HIGH
ALSO MASKING THE SIGNATURE WITH ASSOCIATED CONVECTION EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W S OF 18N
MOVING W 15-20 KT. THE N PORTION OF THE WAVE LIES BENEATH AN
UPPER LOW AND IS ENHANCING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THAT UPPER
LOW. THIS SHALLOW WAVE IS ONLY SEEN ON THE MIMIC TPW ANIMATION
WHICH DEPICTS A NARROW MODEST MOISTURE SURGE MOVING PAST THE ABC
ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N21W 12M38W 6N57W. CLUSTERS
OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE MOVING OFF W AFRICA
FROM 9N-14N E OF 20W. A 1012 MB LOW WAS ADDED AT 0000 UTC NEAR
6N17W...EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ...MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N
BETWEEN 17W-22W. CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150
NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 41W-52W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 27W-33W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN WAS THE PRIME FOCUS EARLIER THIS EVENING
WITH THE ACTIVITY OVER THE FLORIA PENINSULA TAKING PRECEDENCE
NOW. BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE
FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE W ATLC IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE AND
ADVECTING ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA
MOVING N NEAR 25 TO 30 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE GULF FROM 26N-28N E OF 85W. AN UPPER
LOW COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ADVECTING DRY CONTINENTAL
AIR ACROSS THE W GULF W OF 90W THUS LIMITING THE ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE T.D. TEN.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 75W EXTENDING FROM
CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE W ATLC WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE FROM 23N86W IN
THE YUCATAN CHANNEL ACROSS HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 16N86W TO
NEAR 13N83W. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE AND
ADVECTING ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 80W. AN UPPER LOW
IS OVER HAITI PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 71W-74W. UPPER RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH DRY STABLE AIR E OF
70W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS THE FAR W
ATLC W OF 72W ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS GENERATING DIFFLUENCE
AND ADVECTING ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE TO PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA MOVING N NEAR 25 TO 30 KT AND IN THE W ATLC FROM
24N-30N W OF 77W TO OVER THE E COAST OF FLORIDA. A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF INGRID...EXTENDS ALONG
26N68W TO 22N70W. THIS SHALLOW SYSTEM IS ONLY GENERATING
ISOLATED SHOWERS NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE MAIN FEATURE IN
THE CENTRAL ATLC IS A LONG DRAWN OUT SURFACE TROUGH WHICH
EXTENDS FROM A NEAR STATIONARY 1011 MB LOW N OF THE REGION NEAR
35N46W ALONG 30N46W 25N53W TO 14N58W. SCATTERED SHOWER/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 250/300 NM SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THIS SURFACE TROUGH LIES ON THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH
TO THE NW AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC
CENTERED NEAR 11N36W. A SECOND UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR E
ATLC EXTENDING FROM THE CANARY TO OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
27N21W TO BEYOND 32N24W. A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH COVERS THE E
ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB E OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE




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