[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 182313
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE W ATLC BETWEEN THE N BAHAMA
ISLANDS AND THE E COAST OF FLORIDA ANALYZED BY A 1012 MB LOW
NEAR 26N79W. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE GRADUALLY FALLING IN THE AREA
AND CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR A SUBTROPICAL OR A
TROPICAL CYCLONE TO FORM OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SHOWERS...SQUALLS
AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OVER PORTION OF FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT
DAY OR TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT. MID LEVEL
INVERTED-V CURVATURE AT A LOW ALTITUDE. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 22W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 50W/51W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
BROAD MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA FROM
44W-55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
15N-20N BETWEEN 45W-51W AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 50W-54W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W/81W S OF 21W MOVING W 10-15 KT. LOW
LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS OBSERVED OVER THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE FROM 11N-21N BETWEEN 79W-84W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N15W 11N24W 5N32W 10N52W 9N62W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG COVINGTON IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
MOVING W ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE
ITCZ AXIS.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
LARGE UPPER LOW IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND COVERS THE
GULF S OF 27N W OF 92W. A SECOND LARGE UPPER LOW IS CENTERED
ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA COVERING THE GULF E OF
88W THUS INDUCING AN UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF FROM
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE COAST NEAR THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS
BORDER. DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN ALL OF THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS
GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 25N85W TO THE SW LOUISIANA COAST NEAR
30N93W AND A BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 23N90W TO THE TEXAS
COAST NEAR CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
MOVING OFF THE W FLORIDA COAST E OF 84W FROM TAMPA ACROSS THE
FLORIDA KEYS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N81W AND COVERS THE
W CARIBBEAN W OF 78W ENHANCING ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 80W/81W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH
THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING ALONG THE E COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM BELIZE THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO 23N86W
GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN
90/120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN. A SECOND UPPER HIGH IS
IN THE SE CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N64W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA INDUCING AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
HAITI TO E PANAMA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE REMNANTS OF
INGRID IN THE SW ATLC ALONG 62W/63W ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
TO NEAR 14N GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
E OF 64W ACROSS THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS. THE AREA OF THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 17N FROM 64W-76W REMAINS CLEAR THIS EVENING.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE W COAST OF FLORIDA EXTENDS ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TO 78W. AN UPPER HIGH IS TO THE E NEAR 23N73W
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING N TO BEYOND 32N69W. DIFFLUENCE
BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES IS GENERATING RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE W ATLC FROM 23N-30N W OF 72W. AN
UPPER TROUGH IS IN THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING THROUGH 32N53W
TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 26N62W TO NEAR 21N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 30N50W TO NEAR
26N58W. DENSE CLOUDS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE
FROM 22N60W TO BEYOND 32N46W. THE REMNANTS OF INGRID IS A 1012
MB SURFACE LOW JUST N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N63W WITH A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ALONG 62W/63W S OF 25N INTO THE E
CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM
18N-22N BETWEEN 60W-64W. A TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE
REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC WITH THE RIDGE AXIS ALONG 16N E
OF 35W.

$$
WALLACE


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