[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 161112
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID AT 16/0900 UTC IS NEAR
CENTERED 16.9N 55.7W...OR ABOUT 287 NM/530 KM EAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS. INGRID IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 9 KT. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N TO 17.5N
BETWEEN 55W AND 56.5W. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN
WARMING DURING THE LAST 4 TO 5 HOURS ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 19N
BETWEEN 52W AND 57W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 57W AND 60W.
SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ITCZ FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 34W AND
39W...POSSIBLY NOT RELATED ALL THAT MUCH TO THIS WAVE. OTHER
STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FIRST
AREA...FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W...AND FROM 5N TO 6.5N
BETWEEN 34W AND 36W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 12N42W 14N40W
16N37W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 46W/47W SOUTH OF
13N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN INDIVIDUAL CELLS WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM
RADIUS OF 11N44W AND 8N46W...AND FROM 9N TO 10.5N BETWEEN
44W AND 45W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 47W AND 50W. ALL THIS
PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 71W/72W SOUTH
OF 18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT...PASSING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN PART OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW FROM A CYCLONIC CENTER COVERS THE AREA OF
THIS WAVE NORTH OF 14N. A MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS ON TOP OF THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHEASTERN
COLOMBIA. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 69W AND 70W...ON TOP OF LAKE MARACAIBO
IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAVE IS
ALONG 96W/97W SOUTH OF 21N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
IN AN AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF
THE COAST OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 9N13W TO 8N18W 12N13W 12N38W
8N45W 8N49W 8N61W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 10N
BETWEEN AFRICA AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE
FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W. ALL THE REST OF THE AREAS
OF PRECIPITATION HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE SEPARATE PARAGRAPHS
ABOUT THE TROPICAL WAVES.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WEST OF 70W
AND NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH ALREADY HAS CROSSED THE U.S.A. AND IT HAS
REACHED THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO COAST. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES
THROUGH 31N79W TO NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA TO SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST. A TROUGH IS ABOUT 60
TO 90 NM TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 79W AND 89W.
THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN FALLING BEHIND THIS FRONT.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
21N93W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE OFF THE SOUTH TEXAS COAST.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
SOUTH OF 28N WEST OF 65W...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
HAITI/THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM
14N TO 28N BETWEEN 65W AND 81W ACROSS WESTERN CUBA. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN INDIVIDUAL
CLUSTERS ARE SPREAD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND ATLANTIC OCEAN
WATERS FROM 18N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 83W NEAR WESTERN CUBA.

THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FINDS ITSELF UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE
21N93W CYCLONIC CENTER. CYCLONIC FLOW MOVES ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. THIS FLOW MEETS THE ONRUSHING UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF THE
HAITI MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHWESTERN COLOMBIA TOWARD NICARAGUA.
UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW MERGES WITH THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE HAITI CYCLONIC CENTER ALONG 14N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W.
SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
ARE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 75W AND THE COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA.

THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
26N57W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN WATERS FROM 21N TO 33N BETWEEN 49W AND 65W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 23N TO
28N BETWEEN 52W AND 61W. A DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS NEAR 32N37W ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE 1012 MB
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 34N37W. A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 29N37W AND 26N43W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 25N42W 28N37W 30N34W...AND FROM 31N TO 35N
BETWEEN 32W AND 36W.

$$
MT


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