[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 151108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID AT 15/0900 UTC IS NEAR
CENTERED 16.5N 52.7W...OR ABOUT 500 NM/925 KM EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. INGRID IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 9 KT. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. PLEASE
READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33
KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE WITHIN A 50 NM RADIUS OF 15.5N 52.5W. INGRID REMAINS IN AN
AREA OF STRONG UPPER-LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE NOT CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W/34W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER FROM SIX HOURS
AGO DISSIPATED. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W...AND JUST WEST OF THE CAPE
VERDE ISLANDS FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 27W AND 29W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N
TO 16N BETWEEN 30W AND 33W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 42W AND 43W. SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO
8.5N BETWEEN 40W AND 42W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W IN THE ITCZ.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W/67W SOUTH OF
18N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT...PASSING ON TOP OF PUERTO RICO.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 12N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE SHOWERS IN THIS AREA
ARE AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ATLANTIC OCEAN 25N70W CYCLONIC CENTER.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
ACROSS MEXICO AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THIS WAVE IS
ALONG 93W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS
IN AN AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...
COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC.

...THE ITCZ...
8N13W 11N29W 10N34W 7N41W 13N50W 12N54W 10N64W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 13W AND 19W...
AND FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWESTWARD ABOUT 300 NM INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE
IS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WATERS...WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...AND TO SOUTH TEXAS. THE RIDGE IS
ALONG 31N81W 26N89W 25N94W TO THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR
24N98W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
U.S.A...FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY TO ARKANSAS AND
NORTH TEXAS. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 31N81W
24N98W RIDGE. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE IN THIS CYCLONIC
FLOW.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS
FAR TO THE EAST AS 70W. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
SOUTHWEST OF 14N83W 11N75W. A 500 MB TROUGH STRETCHES FROM
COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA. THIS PRECIPITATION IS
OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE ITCZ. THE ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W ARE MOST
PROBABLY RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE 25N70W ATLANTIC
OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE
SHOWERS ARE NORTH OF 16N BETWEEN 70W AND 84W IN UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE 25N70W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
SPREADING SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 67W AND 70W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 60W AND
73W. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
WATERS NORTHWEST OF THE 25N70W CYCLONIC CENTER. THE SURFACE
TROUGH FROM 20N66W TO 25N68W FROM SIX HOURS AGO WAS NOT APPARENT
AT 15/0600 UTC. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N56W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
CENTER BASICALLY COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 48W
AND 61W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 23N TO 27.5N BETWEEN 52W AND 58W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 23N TO 24N BETWEEN 49W AND 50W.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N41W 23N44W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR
36N38W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CYCLONIC CENTER TO 32N38W AND
TO 26N40W. A SHEAR LINE STRETCHES FROM 27N41W TO THE 25N56W
CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 28N38W 26N40W 24N42W.
THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
MOROCCO FROM THE NORTH IS NEAR 27N12W.

$$
MT




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