[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 150604
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT SEP 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM INGRID AT 15/0300 UTC IS NEAR
CENTERED 15.9N 51.5W...OR ABOUT 570 NM/1050 KM EAST OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES. INGRID IS MOVING NORTHWEST 7 KT. THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. THE ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N TO 16N
BETWEEN 51W AND 52.5W. INGRID IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF UPPER
LEVEL WINDS THAT ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND LITTLE
CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 31W/32W SOUTH OF 19N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE IS ALONG THE
WAVE NEAR 11.5N. THE UW-CIMSS TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATION
SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WIDE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
WAVE...MAKING IT EASY TO TRACK. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 14.5N TO 15.5N BETWEEN 26W AND 31W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N31W 14N33W 11N35W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W SOUTH OF 16N MOVING
WEST 5 TO 10 KT. NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM
9N TO 11N BETWEEN 37W AND 39W...FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 39W AND
40W...AND FROM 8N TO 9N BETWEEN 42W AND 43W. THIS PRECIPITATION
ALSO IS IN THE ITCZ.

AN EASTERN CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT...IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS JUST EAST OF
PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 14.5N BETWEEN 64W AND 67W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W AND
67W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W AND
70W. THE SHOWERS IN THIS AREA ARE AT THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ATLANTIC
OCEAN 26N69W CYCLONIC CENTER.

A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
ACROSS MEXICO AND WESTERN GUATEMALA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN. THIS WAVE IS ALONG 91W/92W SOUTH OF 22N MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS IN AN AREA OF BROAD MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW...COMBINED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 18N
BETWEEN 91W AND 95W.

...THE ITCZ...
8N13W 11N22W 11N29W 10N34W 7N41W 8N45W 14N48W 13N53W 10N63W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
30W...FROM 2N TO 9N BETWEEN 30W AND 40W...AND ELSEWHERE
FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 49W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
SOUTHWESTWARD ABOUT 300 NM INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FEATURE
IS UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE RIDGE IS ALONG 31N81W
26N89W 25N94W TO THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO COAST NEAR 24N98W.
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE U.S.A...
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE OHIO VALLEY TO ARKANSAS AND NORTH
TEXAS. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE 31N81W 24N98W
RIDGE. ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER APPEARS TO BE
NEAR 23N87W. A WEAK REMNANT OF A SECOND CYCLONIC CENTER IS NEAR
21N92W CURVING TO INTERIOR MEXICO JUST WEST OF THE ISTHMUS OF
TEHUANTEPEC.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA IS SENDING UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA AS
FAR TO THE EAST AS 70W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 14N WEST OF
76W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A 500 MB TROUGH
STRETCHES FROM COLOMBIA NORTHWESTWARD TO NICARAGUA. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING WITHIN 300 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE
ITCZ. THE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 60W
AND 70W ARE MOST PROBABLY RELATED TO THE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND
THE 26N69W ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE 26N69W MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS
SPREADING SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 63W AND 70W. UPPER LEVEL
NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC WATERS NORTHWEST OF
THE 26N69W CYCLONIC CENTER. A SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 20N66W TO
23N67W TO 25N68W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N54W. CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS
CENTER BASICALLY COVERS THE AREA FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 49W AND
60W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 24N TO 26.5N BETWEEN 52W AND 56W...AND FROM 21N TO 22N
BETWEEN 51W AND 53W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N39W 26N42W
22N44W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 35N38W. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE
CYCLONIC CENTER TO 32N37W AND TO 27N41W. A SHEAR LINE STRETCHES
FROM 27N41W TO THE 25N54W CYCLONIC CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE
SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 30 TO 45 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH 31N34W 29N38W 27N40W 21N42W.
THE SOUTHERNMOST POINT OF A TROUGH WHOSE CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS
MOROCCO FROM THE NORTH IS NEAR 27N12W.

$$
MT








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