[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 150011
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI SEP 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM INGRID IS CENTERED NEAR 15.6N 50.6W AT 14/2100
UTC OR ABOUT 710 NM...1145 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MOVING NORTHWEST AT 7 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1004 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45
KT.  SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NEAR THE CENTER FROM 14N-17N
BETWEEN 49W-52W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF MOVING W 10-15 KT.  A 1008 MB
LOW IS ANALYZED ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N.  THE UW-CIMSS TPW
ANIMATION SHOWS A WELL DEFINED WIDE MOISTURE PLUME ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS WAVE...MAKING IT EASY TO TRACK.  A CURVED BAND OF
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW
QUADRANT ALONG 15N28W 14N31W 11N34W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FURTHER S ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN
23W-33W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 42W S OF 17N MOVING W 5-10 KT.  THIS WAVE
IS STILL SHOWING AN INVERTED V-PATTERN ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.
MOST OF CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE IS WITHIN THE ITCZ.
WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
35W-45W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 64W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THE SSMI
DERIVE TPW INDICATES THE PRESENCE OF THIS WAVE AS WELL AS SFC
DATA. THE WAVE IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE
SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND NE VENEZUELA.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 91W S OF 21N MOVING W 15 KT.  THE WAVE
EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO GUATEMALA TO THE EPAC.  A
BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING IS MOST PRONOUNCED S OF
GUATEMALA.  CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
13N-19N BETWEEN 88W-92W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 11N25W 7N35W 7N42W 13N50W
10N62W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES AND T.S. INGRID... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG
THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 13W-16W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO S TEXAS ALONG
30N90W 27N97W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS MOSTLY S
OF THE TROUGH AXIS FROM 25N-28N BETWEEN 89W-99W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER S FLORIDA FROM 25N-29N
BETWEEN 81W-83W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER N
FLORIDA FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 81W-88W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 80W-85W.  THE NRN
EXTENT OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.  SEE
ABOVE.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED
OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N82W.  IT IS PRODUCING ANTICYCLONIC
TURNING OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS IS N OF 26N.
EXPECT THE SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE E OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH
CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL
WAVE TO MOVE W OVER THE SRN BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER CENTRAL AMMMERICA...AND ANOTHER TROPICAL
WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  LIGHT TO MODERATE
TRADES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.  A 1007 MB LOW IS
CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 9N74W.  BESIDES THE CONVECTION
MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA...AND
COSTA RICA FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 76W-84W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 70W-72W.
IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 12N80W.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 10N AND E OF 70W.  SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE IS W OF 70W.  EXPECT CONVECTION  MAINLY DUE TO THE
TROPICAL WAVES DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N57W.  A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER S OVER THE TROPICS ALONG 26N70W
20N65W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE
TROUGH.  ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
ALONG 30N38W 22N43W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
27N-31N BETWEEN 37W-40W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A RIDGE IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC N OF 22N W OF 70W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 26N67W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N53W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS W OF T.S.
INGRID NEAR 14N57W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS E OF T.S.
INGRID NEAR 16N40W.  ANOTHER LARGE UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 20N26W.

$$
FORMOSA






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