[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS84 KLCH 122140
HLSLCH
LAZ041>045-051>055-TXZ215-216-132145-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
440 PM CDT WED SEP 12 2007

...TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST OVERNIGHT...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS EXTENDED EASTWARD
TO INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO JEFFERSON AND ORANGE COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST TEXAS...AND FOR CAMERON ...CALCASIEU...JEFFERSON
DAVIS...VERMILION...ACADIA...LAFAYETTE... IBERIA...UPPER AND LOWER
SAINT MARTIN...SAINT MARY PARISHES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO
INTRACOASTAL CITY LOUISIANA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS LOCATED AT
28.6 NORTH LATITUDE...94.9 WEST LONGITUDE...OR 70 MILES SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF HIGH ISLAND TEXAS...125 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CAMERON
LOUISIANA...AND 185 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF INTRACOASTAL CITY
LOUISIANA.

HUMBERTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH. A TURN TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF HUMBERTO
SHOULD BE CROSSING THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED PRIOR TO LANDFALL.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS 999 MB...OR 29.50 INCHES.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
NO EVACUATIONS OF COASTAL JEFFERSON COUNTY OR COASTAL CAMERON AND
VERMILION PARISHES HAS BEEN CALLED FOR AT THIS TIME.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
TIDES ARE ALREADY RUNNING ONE AND AN HALF FEET ABOVE NORMAL AT
CAMERON LOUISIANA...AND ONE FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT SABINE PASS AND
CYPREMORT PORT LOUISIANA. FOR OVERNIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...EXPECT
TOTAL STORM TIDES TO RANGE BETWEEN 4 AND 5 FEET ACROSS COASTAL
JEFFERSON AND CAMERON PARISHES...AND 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS COASTAL
VERMILION...IBERIA...AND SAINT MARY PARISHES. THESE TIDAL LEVELS
AND FOLLOWING EFFECTS WILL BE SIMILIAR TO TROPICAL STORM FRANCES
IN 1998.

FOR TIDAL LEVELS 4 TO 5 FEET ACROSS JEFFERSON COUNTY...EXPECT
HIGHWAY 87 BETWEEN HIGH ISLAND AND SABINE PASS TO HAVE NEAR A FOOT
TO AT TIME A FOOT AND A HALF OF TIDAL FLOODING. SEVERAL ROADS
WITHIN PORT ARTHUR AND SABINE PASS HAVING TIDAL FLOODING...RANGING
BETWEEN 6 INHCES TO NEAR A FOOT DEEP.

FOR TIDAL LEVELS OVER 4 TO 5 FEET ACROSS CAMERON PARISH...EXPECT
PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 82 TO FLOOD BETWEEN HOLLY BEACH AND JOHNSON'S
BAYOU...BETWEEN OAK GROVE AND GRAND CHENIER. ALSO EXPECT PORTIONS
OF MAIN STREET IN CAMERON TO FLOOD...WITH WATER DEPTHS NEAR A FOOT
TO A FOOT AND A HALF DEEP.

FOR TIDAL LEVELS 3 TO 4 FEET ACROSS VERMILION PARISH...EXPECT
SECONDARY ROADS OFF OF HIGHWAYS 83 AND 333...AS WELL AS WITHIN
INTRACOASTAL CITY...TO HAVE MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLE.

THE FOLLOWING TABLE SHOWS PREDICTED TIDE LEVELS FOR SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA.

AT SABINE PASS THIS EVENING, EXPECT A
LOW TIDE OF 1.0 FEET AT 11:01 PM.

FOR THURSDAY, EXPECT A
HIGH TIDE OF 1.6 FEET AT 4:29 AM;
LOW TIDE OF 0.8 FEET AT 11:24 AM;
HIGH TIDE OF 1.7 FEET AT 5:32 PM;
LOW TIDE OF 1.3 FEET AT 11:27 PM.

AT CAMERON THIS EVENING, EXPECT A
LOW TIDE OF 1.3 FEET AT 10:15 PM.

FOR THURSDAY, EXPECT A
HIGH TIDE OF 2.0 FEET AT 3:33 AM;
LOW TIDE OF 1.0 FEET AT 10:38 AM;
HIGH TIDE OF 2.1 FEET AT 4:36 PM;
LOW TIDE OF 1.6 FEET AT 10:41 PM.

AT VERMILION BAY THIS EVENING, EXPECT A
LOW TIDE OF 1.0 FEET AT 11:06 PM.

FOR THURSDAY, EXPECT A
HIGH TIDE OF 1.6 FEET AT 5:15 AM;
LOW TIDE OF 0.8 FEET AT 11:29 AM;
HIGH TIDE OF 1.7 FEET AT 6:18 PM;
LOW TIDE OF 1.3 FEET AT 11:32 PM.

...WINDS...
TROPICAL STORM HUMBERTO IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE THIS EVENING
JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT OVER THE BOLIVAR PENNISULA OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.
WITH THE FORECASTED TRACK...THE ENVELOP OF SUSTAINED TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS COASTAL JEFFERSON COUNTY
LATE THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD FURTHER NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER
OF JEFFERSON...HARDIN...AND TYLER COUNTIES INTO THE MORNING HOURS
THURSDAY. GUSTS OVER TROPICAL STORM FORCE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE RAINBANDS THAT AFFECT SOUTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
LOUISIANA TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
THE PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS PASSING WITHIN THE
FOLLOWING LOCATIONS ARE:

34 KNOTS FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY:
PORT ARTHUR TEXAS: 15%

50 KNOTS FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM THURSDAY:
PORT ARTHUR TEXAS:  2%

34 KNOTS FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM THURSDAY:
PORT ARTHUR TEXAS: 29%
NEW IBERIA LOUISIANA:    3%

50 KNOTS FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM THURSDAY:
PORT ARTHUR TEXAS:  5%

34 KNOTS FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM FRIDAY:
PORT ARTHUR TEXAS:  2%
NEW IBERIA LOUISIANA:    2%

50 KNOTS FROM 1 PM THURSDAY TO 1 AM FRIDAY:
PORT ARTHUR TEXAS:  1%

INLAND FLOODING...
INLAND FLOODING IS THE BIGGEST WEATHER THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM...DUE
TO THE SLOW EXPECTED MOVEMENT NORTHWARD. EXPECT AREAWIDE RAINFALL
TOTALS TO RANGE 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 15
INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS.

...TORNADOES...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA...MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT
OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL OVERNIGHT. ONCE THE SYSTEM
MOVES FURTHER INLAND THURSDAY...ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE RAINBANDS THAT SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

.HYDROLOGIC IMPACT...
HIGH TIDES ALONG THE COAST WILL CAUSE WATER BACK-UP ALONG LOWER
REACHES OF THE CALCASIEU...MERMENTAU...VERMILION...NECHES AND SABINE
RIVERS. CURRENTLY...THE CALCASIEU RIVER AT OLD TOWN BAY AND SALT
WATER BARRIER ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE FLOOD STAGE OF 4 FEET
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE EXPECTED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
CAUSE AREA RIVER LEVELS AND FLOWS TO INCREASE. RESIDENTS WITH
INTERESTS ALONG AREA RIVERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
RIVER FORECASTS FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF FUTURE RIVER FLOOD
WARNINGS.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT UPDATE WILL BE OUT BY 8 PM CDT.

$$




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