[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112354
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE SEP 11 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS PERSISTED THIS EVENING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A TROPICAL WAVE AND BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 1200 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 41W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 41W-44W...
AND FROM 7N-10N BETWEEN 43W-46W.  CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND THIS SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION WITHIN A DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
NEAR 10 MPH.

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT IS CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES EAST
OF THE LOWER TEXAS COAST IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR
SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY WESTWARD
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 22N MOVING W 15 KT.  THIS
REMAINS A LARGE AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATING BROAD TURNING IN THE STRATOCUMULUS FIELD BETWEEN
24W-36W.  WHILE THE WAVE STRUCTURE IS WELL DEFINED...CONVECTION
REMAINS CONFINED TO THE ITCZ.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 23W-28W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 31W-35W.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE E CARIBBEAN ALONG 68W S OF 20N MOVING
W 10 TO 15 KT.  A WEAK INVERTED-V SIGNATURE IS SEEN ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY.  THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH A BROAD UPPER LOW THAT IS
OVER HISPANIOLA.  CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 65W-72W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N15W 9N20W 13N35W 9N50W 10N60W.
BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...  AN
AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS JUST INLAND
OVER W AFRICA FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 11W-17W PROBABLY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN
61W-66W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE MAIN FEATURE IN THE GULF IS A 1012 MB LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NW GULF NEAR 27N95W.  A TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTH FROM THE LOW TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N94W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
NEAR THE LOW CENTER FROM 24N-28N BETWEEN 91W-99W.  FURTHER N...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS IS APPROACHING THE
COAST OF TEXAS.  FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM
16N-21N BETWEEN 87W-91W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER W CUBA FROM
21N-23N BETWEEN 80W-85W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER
INLAND FLORIDA.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
OVER THE E GULF PRODUCING NLY FLOW.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
OVER INLAND MEXICO NEAR 21N103W.  SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE WITH BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF
MEXICO.  EXPECT THE FRONT TO STALL JUST N OF THE GULF LOW DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THUS WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE PERIOD.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.  SEE ABOVE.
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SEA.    A
1005 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 8N77W.  ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA AND PANAMA FROM 5N-10N
BETWEEN 73W-83W.  SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER CUBA...JAMAICA...
AND THE W CARIBBEAN FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 75W-85W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER HISPANIOLA IS PRODUCING MOSTLY
WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT HINDERS
TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT OVER THE TROPICAL WAVE.  EXPECT CONVECTION
WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT
CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF
75W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1022 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 32N60W.  A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 32N36W 28N40W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH.  A
1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 32N28W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A TROUGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W.  A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR
17N45W.  A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS E AND W BETWEEN 15W-60W.

$$
FORMOSA






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