[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 101440
TCDAT2
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007
1100 AM EDT MON SEP 10 2007

DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED ABOUT 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  HOWEVER....
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR HAS NOT ALLOWED THIS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO
ACQUIRE MUCH CURVATURE.  A 1026 UTC QUIKSCAT OVERPASS INDICATED
THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS WERE 25-30 KT AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL
REMAIN 30 KT.

GABRIELLE HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE EASTWARD DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT A LONGER-TERM MOTION YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE
OF 070/11.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...BUT IS ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD MAINLY DUE TO THE MORE
EASTWARD INITIAL MOTION.  THE NEW TRACK IS ALONG THE SOUTH SIDE
OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE AND CLOSE TO THE GFS TRACK.

GABRIELLE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND GRADUALLY DECREASING SSTS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WILL MAINTAIN THE CYCLONE AS A 30 KT DEPRESSION UNTIL IT
MERGES WITH A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
HOWEVER...IF THE DEPRESSION IS NOT ABLE TO GENERATE MORE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION THAN CURRENTLY OBSERVED...IT MAY NOT SURVIVE AS A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR THAT LONG.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/1500Z 37.1N  73.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 37.9N  71.1W    30 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 39.3N  67.5W    30 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 41.1N  62.9W    30 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

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