[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT42 KNHC 100232
TCDAT2
TROPICAL STORM GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072007
1100 PM EDT SUN SEP 09 2007

SATELLITE AND WSR-88D RADAR IMAGES SHOW THAT GABRIELLE IS A POORLY
ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH ANY REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION FAR TO THE
SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE STORM HAS EMERGED INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
AND WAS FIXED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER...FINDING 42
KT MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS AND A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1008 MB.
RECENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM FRISCO PIER SUGGEST THAT 40 KT
REMAINS A GOOD INITIAL INTENSITY. WITH A CONTINUATION OF STRONG
SHEAR AND ONLY ABOUT 24 HOURS OF WARM WATER REMAINING IN THE
STORM'S PATH...SOME WEAKENING SEEMS LIKELY AND IS SHOWN IN THE NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
REDEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES OVER THE WARM GULF STREAM AND
MAINTAIN ITS STATUS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. HOWEVER...IF CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO BE SO FAR REMOVED FROM THE CENTER...GABRIELLE COULD
LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS BEFORE MERGING WITH AN EXTRATROPICAL
LOW IN A FEW DAYS.

THE MOTION HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND IS ESTIMATED
NEAR 035/9. GABRIELLE IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY TURN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD AS IT MOVES AROUND A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE MIDDLE-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. THE TRACK
GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
ALMOST THE SAME AS THAT OF PREVIOUS ADVISORY. BEYOND 48 HOURS...
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME ABSORBED BY A LARGER EXTRATROPICAL
LOW BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. HOWEVER... THE GFS DOES SUGGEST
THE POSSIBILITY OF GABRIELLE REMAINING FAR ENOUGH TO THE SOUTH TO
BE SEPARATE FROM THE LARGE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...BUT TO REMAIN A WEAK
SYSTEM.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      10/0300Z 36.3N  75.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     10/1200Z 37.2N  73.7W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/0000Z 38.3N  70.8W    35 KT
 36HR VT     11/1200Z 39.5N  67.5W    35 KT
 48HR VT     12/0000Z 41.0N  62.5W    35 KT
 72HR VT     13/0000Z...ABSORBED

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/PASCH

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