[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 070002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU SEP 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A NON-TROPICAL 1009 MB LOW ABOUT 350 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA
AT 28N70W REMAINS DISORGANIZED.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS SW
FROM THE LOW TO THE BAHAMAS NEAR 22N76W.  WHILE UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT...THEY COULD BECOME MORE
FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE LOW
IS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY AT THIS TIME...BUT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WELL E OF THE LOW CENTER FROM
28N-31N BETWEEN 64W-67W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF
THE TROUGH AXIS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS NEAR THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 17W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE HAS GOOD WWD CONTINUITY
OVER THE CONTINENT WHEN LOOKING AT MET-9 SATELLITE HOVMOLLER
DIAGRAMS.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A FAIR AMOUNT OF BROAD
CYCLONIC LOW-LEVEL TURNING.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM 11N-18N BETWEEN
14W-19W.

LARGE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 23N MOVING W 15 KT.
A LOW-LEVEL SWIRL IS ON THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 14N NOT PRODUCING
MUCH WEATHER. THE WAVE ITSELF REMAINS VERY WELL DEFINED WITH A
LARGE AREA OF PRONOUNCED TURNING IN THE LOW LEVELS.  SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS VERY LIMITED LIKELY SUPPRESSED BY THE DRY STABLE
ENVIRONMENT IT IS EMBEDDED IN.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT.  THERE IS
SOME CLOUDINESS NEAR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE BUT THIS
IS LIKELY MORE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LOW IN THE REGION.
FURTHER S... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 73W-76W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N25W 11N50W 10N63W.  BESIDES
FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE E ATLC TROPICAL
WAVE...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N
BETWEEN 17W-28W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
WEAK SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE
WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 25N94W.  AN AREA OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E TEXAS AND LOUISIANA FROM
29N-31N BETWEEN 91W-96W.  CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION PERSISTS OVER THE E GULF...S FLORIDA...AND W CUBA
FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 80W-87W.  FURTHER S... INLAND YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND S MEXICO HAS SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
CONVECTION FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 88W-97W DUE TO THE REMNANTS OF
FELIX.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER
CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 21N103W.  EXPECT CONVECTION OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AND SURROUNDING LAND MASSES W OF 83W DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW...THE REMNANTS OF FELIX...IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO NEAR 17N93W.  CONVECTION REMAINS N OF THE LOW CENTER.
FURTHER S...CENTRAL AMERICA FROM COSTA RICA TO HONDURAS HAS
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 83W-89W.  CUBA HAS SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 20N-22N BETWEEN 75W-85W.  FURTHER E... A
TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER HISPANIOLA NEAR
19N72W MOVING W.  THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA HAS NELY
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE.  EXPECT CONVECTION
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 80W DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 28N70W.  SEE
ABOVE.  A 1020 MB HIGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N46W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 29N73W.  DIFFLUENCE E OF
THIS UPPER LOW IS ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
SURFACE LOW.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS FURTHER E OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 26N54W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER S OVER
THE TROPICS CENTERED NEAR 15N54W MOVING W.  A TROUGH IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 10W-30W.

$$
FORMOSA


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