[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 061023
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT THU SEP 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB LOW LOCATED ABOUT 300 NM SW OF BERMUDA NEAR 29N70W
WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO OVER THE
BAHAMAS NEAR 23N76W. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS COMPLETELY EXPOSED
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE E FROM 28N-31N
BETWEEN 60W-67W AND WITHIN 90/120 NM OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE
SYSTEM IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE W OF THE
SURFACE LOW/TROUGH. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NOT
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS CLOUD BECOME
MORE FAVORABLE AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY...AND A
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED FROM 24N40W ALONG 18N43W TO 9N43W MOVING
W 10-15 KT. VERY BROAD LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE IS
COVERING THE AREA S OF 25N FROM 30W-48W. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
75 NM OF LINE FROM 16N32W TO 18N36W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 41W-47W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 72W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE
CARIBBEAN MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND LIMITING ANY
SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N12W 5N25W 8N45W 7N51W 10N63W. A
VERY WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS NEAR 12N37W DRIFTING EASTWARD AND
CHARACTERIZED BY A SMALL LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH NO SHOWER
ACTIVITY. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION ARE FROM 4N-13N E OF 23W TO JUST INLAND OVER W
AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 2N-8N
BETWEEN 23W-39W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE N GULF COAST NEAR THE
MISSISSIPPI SE TO W CUBA NEAR 23N83W COVERING THE GULF E OF 90W
WITH THE W GULF HAVING ZONAL EASTERLY FLOW. THE REMNANTS OF
FELIX ARE INLAND OVER GUATEMALA/S MEXICO AND ARE GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
S OF 20N. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE E GULF COUPLED WITH EASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW CONTINUES MOVE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OFF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA
TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR HAVANA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA
REMAINS TRANQUIL THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT/MODERATE SURFACE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE REMNANTS OF FELIX ARE INLAND OVER GUATEMALA AND STILL
PRODUCING HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. AN UPPER
LOW IS OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN. THIS IS GIVING THE ENTIRE W CARIBBEAN POSSIBLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF 75W. AN UPPER LOW
IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 17N70W BUT DUE TO THE DRY
STABLE AIR IS UNABLE TO GENERATE ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE DRY
STABLE AIR THAT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W IS GIVING THE
AREA CLEAR SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF ON GONAVE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC N OF 23N FROM 67W TO THE E
FLORIDA COAST WITH AN EMBEDDED UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 30N72W
AND THE ASSOCIATED 1008 MB LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED IN
THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER HIGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
NEAR 27N57W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL AND E
ATLC N OF 26N FROM 12W-44W. A MID/UPPER LOW IS IN THE W TROPICAL
ATLC NEAR NEAR 14N52W. THE REMAINDER OF THE TROPICAL ATLC IS
DOMINATED BY EASTERLY UPPER FLOW. ALL THESE UPPER FEATURES ARE
RATHER BENIGN COUPLED WITH THE ABUNDANCE DRY AIR ALOFT AND A
SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE ATLC E OF 62W ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB
HIGH NEAR 29N45W ARE GIVING THE MUCH OF THE ATLC FAIR WEATHER
CLOUDS WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

$$
WALLACE





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