[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 051021
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED SEP 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0945 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FELIX WAS DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT
05/0900 UTC. FELIX IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N
87.0W WHICH IS VERY NEAR TEGUCIGALPA MOVING W AT 8 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND
SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. THIS WAS THE LAST ADVISORY
WRITTEN BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. HEAVY RAIN AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA...ALL
OF HONDURAS...AND E GUATEMALA. THIS ACTIVITY COULD CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS S
OF 20N W OF 80W TO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS IN THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR
29N72W AT 05/0900 UTC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 33N68W. THIS SYSTEM HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVERNIGHT BUT UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION THAT COULD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE
LOW LEVEL CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO THE E WITHIN 150/180 NM
OF A LINE FROM THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N76W TO 31N69W WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE E COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM FORT LAUDERDALE TO JACKSONVILLE.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA S OF 23N
FROM 28W-45W OVERTAKING THE 1013 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
16N-19N BETWEEN 30W-46W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 67W/68W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND LIMITING ANY
SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 10N25W 12N34W 9N48W 10N61W. A
NEAR STATIONARY WEAKENING 1013 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ NEAR 11N40W AND CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF W AFRICA S OF 12N W OF 10W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-10N BETWEEN 15W-37W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND SE TEXAS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE NW GULF N OF 24N W OF 93W. AN
INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE
TO OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TO NEAR 27N91W DRAWING HIGH LEVEL
DEBRIS CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE T.D. FELIX INTO THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS TO 24N ACROSS
THE FAR E GULF AND FLORIDA PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF A LINE FROM SE LOUISIANA NEAR
29N91W TO THE W COAST OF FLORIDA BETWEEN TAMPA AND FORT MYERS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH
POSSIBLE WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.D. FELIX IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND STILL PRODUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. FOR MORE DETAILS ON
FELIX REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. UPPER HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH FELIX COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 74W. AN UPPER
LOW IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 15N67W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN S
OF 12N FROM 64W-67W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE N PORTION
OF SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC ACROSS COSTA RICA GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N FROM 71W-83W. DRY
STABLE AIR IS COVERS REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CLEARING SKIES
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS
OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN BROUGHT IN BY THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE
WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N74W SW 24N78W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED 1007 MB LOW AND SURFACE TROUGHS MENTIONED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC W OF 56W AND CENTERED NEAR
27N62W. AN UPPER TROUGH DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH
32N50W TO 27N53W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 28N52W TO BEYOND 32N48W.
THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFF AFRICA TO NEAR 42W CENTERED ROUGHLY
ALONG 24W/25W. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ATLC E OF 50W
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA AND A 1022 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 29N37W. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE






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