[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 050459
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT WED SEP 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL STORM FELIX IS INLAND OVER HONDURAS CENTERED NEAR 14.1N
85.7W OR ABOUT 87 NM E OF TEGUCIGALPA AT 05/0300 UTC MOVING W AT
10 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. FELIX
MADE LANDFALL EARLY ON TUESDAY OVER NICARAGUA AND CONTINUES A
WESTWARD TRACK. HEAVY RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS HAVE BEEN OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA
AND HONDURAS FOR THE PAST FEW HOURS AND COULD PRODUCING
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN WATERS S
OF 20N BETWEEN 78W-91W INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

A 1007 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS IN THE W ATLC CENTERED NEAR
29N73W AT 05/0300 UTC WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS
THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS NE FROM THE LOW TO 32N70W. ALTHOUGH THIS SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ONLY MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM LATER
TODAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY AND ERRATICALLY. THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION TO THE E FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 69W-73W WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM SE OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH FROM 25N-28N AND WITHIN 100 NM NW OF THE TROUGH
FROM THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE FLORIDA COAST.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 33W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. BROAD
LOW/MID LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA S OF 23N
FROM 27W-42W OVERTAKING THE 1013 MB LOW EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
ITCZ. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM
15N-18N BETWEEN 28W-37W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W/66W S OF 20N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS EMBEDDED WITHIN SOME RATHER DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE E
CARIBBEAN MASKING THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND LIMITING ANY
SHOWERS/DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 94W S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS
OVER S MEXICO AND INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. SEE THE E
PACIFIC TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION UNDER AWIPS HEADER TWDEP FOR
FURTHER DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N14W 15N27W 7N50W 8N61W. A NEAR
STATIONARY WEAK 1013 MB LOW IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ NEAR
11N40W AND CHARACTERIZED BY A LOW LEVEL SWIRL WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS MOSTLY INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE COAST OF
W AFRICA FROM 10N-13N. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 18W-40W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO AND TEXAS TO THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE W GULF W OF 94W. AN INVERTED
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE TO OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF NEAR 28N90W DRAWING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED
WITH THE T.S. FELIX INTO THE E BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN UPPER TROUGH
OVER THE W ATLC DIPS ACROSS THE FAR NE GULF AND N FLORIDA
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM
ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA S OF 27N TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS.
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH
POSSIBLE WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITH LIGHT SURFACE
WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S. FELIX IS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND STILL PRODUCING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. FOR MORE DETAILS ON
FELIX REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. UPPER HIGH
ASSOCIATED WITH FELIX COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 73W. AN UPPER
LOW IS IN THE SE CARIBBEAN OFF THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR
13N66W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 12N FROM 61W-64W. DRY STABLE AIR IS
COVERS REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CLEARING SKIES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOME ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS OVER THE NE
CARIBBEAN BROUGHT IN BY THE MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 32N75W SW 24N78W WITH THE
ASSOCIATED 1007 MB LOW AND SURFACE TROUGHS MENTIONED IN THE
SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. AN UPPER HIGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF
THE W ATLC W OF 57W AND CENTERED NEAR 26N64W. AN UPPER TROUGH
DIPS INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH 32N53W TO 26N55W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 23N58W TO 28N51W AND DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS CONTINUING N WITHIN 150 NM TO BEYOND 32N48W. THE
REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER
RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFF AFRICA TO NEAR 45W CENTERED ROUGHLY
ALONG 24W/25W. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ATLC E OF 50W
WITH A SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE AREA AND A 1022 MB HIGH
CENTERED NEAR 29N35W. LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE
ACROSS THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE





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