[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 050248
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
1000 PM CDT TUE SEP 04 2007

FELIX CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER LAND.  THE CENTER HAS BECOME
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE AS THE CENTRAL CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...WITH
THE SITUATION BEING COMPLICATED BY THE UPPER-LEVEL PORTION OF THE
STORM POSSIBLY MOVING ON A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK THAN THE LOW-LEVEL
PORTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 265/10.  FELIX SHOULD
CONTINUE A GENERAL WESTERLY MOTION UNTIL THE CENTER DISSIPATES OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA IN 24-36 HR.

THE MAJOR CONCERN IS NOW THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BY THE
STEEP TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE RESULTING FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.  SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 25
INCHES.  THEREFORE...PERSONS LOCATED IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD
TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      05/0300Z 14.1N  85.7W    45 KT
 12HR VT     05/1200Z 14.1N  87.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     06/0000Z 14.3N  89.0W    20 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     06/1200Z...INLAND

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

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