[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

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WTNT41 KNHC 042038
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
500 PM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007

FELIX CONTINUES ITS TREK OVER LAND AND THE CENTER IS NOW APPROACHING
THE HONDURAS BORDER.  THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS REMAINED QUITE WELL
ORGANIZED UP TO THIS TIME AND THERE ARE STILL SOME IMPRESSIVE
SPIRAL BANDS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  HOWEVER...THE CYCLONE
WILL BE ENCOUNTERING SOME FORMIDABLE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...SO RAPID WEAKENING IS LIKELY.  THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE REDUCED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TOMORROW.  MY INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR
A SLIGHTLY FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF
HONDURAS' HIGH MOUNTAINS.  DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN 36-48
HOURS...IF NOT SOONER.

ASIDE FROM A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD WOBBLE EARLIER TODAY...THE MOTION HAS
BEEN GENERALLY WESTWARD...AROUND 270/12.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE CALLS
FOR A WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WITH JUST A SLIGHT
REDUCTION OF FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND SO
DOES THE NHC TRACK FORECAST.

THE MAJOR CONCERN IS THE THREAT OF PRECIPITATION ENHANCED BY THE
STEEP TOPOGRAPHY OF CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE RESULTING FLOODS AND
MUD SLIDES.  SOME LOCATIONS COULD SEE RAINFALL TOTALS AS HIGH AS 25
INCHES.  THEREFORE...PERSONS LOCATED IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD
TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/2100Z 14.2N  85.0W    65 KT
 12HR VT     05/0600Z 14.3N  86.7W    40 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     05/1800Z 14.6N  88.9W    25 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     06/0600Z 15.0N  91.0W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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