[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 041447
TCDAT1
HURRICANE FELIX DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL062007
1100 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007

FELIX IS NOW INLAND AND WEAKENING OVER EXTREME NORTHEASTERN
NICARAGUA.  THE ESTIMATED LANDFALL INTENSITY OF THE HURRICANE IS 140
KT.  THIS IS BASED ON THE FACT THAT AIRCRAFT DATA SUPPORTED 135 KT
AT AROUND 07Z...AND AFTER THAT TIME THE EYE BECAME MORE DISTINCT
AND THE SURROUNDING CLOUD TOPS COOLED...RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN
OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OF 0.3.  CURRENT INTENSITY AND CENTRAL PRESSURE
ARE BASED ON STANDARD INLAND WEAKENING AND FILLING RATES OVER THE 3
HOURS SINCE LANDFALL.  THE CYCLONE WILL BE PASSING OVER EXTREMELY
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...SO THE RATE OF
WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BE A LITTLE MORE RAPID THAN INDICATED BY
THE STANDARD INLAND DECAY MODEL.

THE MAJOR CONCERN NOW SHIFTS TO THE THREAT OF TORRENTIAL RAINS OVER
THE MOUNTAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA.  ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 25
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.  PERSONS LIVING IN FLOOD-PRONE AREAS SHOULD
TAKE ALL PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY.

HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF FELIX SHOULD MAINTAIN A MOSTLY
WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      04/1500Z 14.3N  83.9W   105 KT
 12HR VT     05/0000Z 14.3N  85.7W    60 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     05/1200Z 14.5N  88.0W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     06/0000Z 15.0N  90.0W    20 KT...INLAND...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     06/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

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