[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 040607 RRA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE SEP 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FELIX IS CENTERED NEAR 14.3N 81.9W OR ABOUT 87 NM ESE
OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS AT 04/0600 UTC...MOVING W AT 15 KT.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AIRCRAFT IS 940 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 130 KT WITH GUSTS TO 160
KT MAKING FELIX A EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. SEE
LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS
INCLUDING THE LATEST WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION. FELIX IS
APPROACHING THE TIP OF NICARAGUA/HONDURAS WITH TROPICAL STORM
WINDS ALREADY REACHING THE COAST. OUTER RAINBANDS OF HEAVY
RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY REACHED NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AND LANDFALL IS EXPECTED
IN A FEW HOURS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES IS EXPECTED
ACROSS N NICARAGUA AND MUCH OF HONDURAS WITH POSSIBLE AMOUNTS OF
UP TO 20 INCHES IN ISOLATED AREAS. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 115 NM OF THE CENTER IN ALL QUADRANTS.

A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE AREA IS OFF THE GEORGIA/NE FLORIDA COAST
CENTERED NEAR 30N77W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING SW ACROSS S
FLORIDA TO NEAR KEY WEST FLORIDA. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY DOES
SHOW ANY TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS ONLY DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND SHOWERS. IT DOES HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR TO ACQUIRE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS IT
DRIFTS EASTWARD. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 71W-78W AND WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH S OF 27N.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 28W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT WITH A
WEAK 1011 MB LOW ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 14N. SATELLITE IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD REGION OF LOW/MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
TURNING WITH A VERY SMALL LOW LEVEL CENTER. NO ASSOCIATED
SHOWERS OR DEEP CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 23N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT.
WAVE HAS A CLASSIC BROAD INVERTED-V CURVATURE COVERING THE AREA
FROM 52W-65W. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE DRY STABLE AIR OVER THE
REGION THERE IS NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION WITH ONLY ISOLATED
SHOWERS FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 55W-63W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 90W/91W S OF 22N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND IN THE E PACIFIC REGION WITH
SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE E
BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 21N E OF 94W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 17N16W 14N25W 11N37W 10N45W 10N63W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 27W-46W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER COVERING THE W GULF W OF 92W. AN
UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 27N87W COVERING THE E GULF
INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE E BAY
OF CAMPECHE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO ENHANCING ACTIVITY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 90W/91W. THIS SCENARIO
IS ALSO PRODUCING ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE NW GULF
TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 21N W
OF 92W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS/LOUISIANA AND MEXICO WITH SIMILAR
ACTIVITY OVER THE NE GULF N OF 28N E OF THE ALABAMA TO THE W
COAST OF FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY
TRANQUIL WITH POSSIBLE WIDELY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS WITH
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE FELIX IS THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING AS IT MOVES
TOWARD CENTRAL AMERICA MAKING LANDFALL LATER THIS MORNING. FOR
MORE DETAILS ON FELIX REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE. OUTER RAINBANDS FROM FELIX COVER A BROAD AREA COVERING
THE AREA S OF 19N FROM 75W-86W. UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH FELIX
IS PRODUCING GOOD OUTFLOW OVER FELIX IN ALL QUADRANTS FROM
74W-87W. THE ITCZ AXIS EXTENDS INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION FROM
ACROSS COLOMBIA TO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND AND WITHIN 75 NM ALONG THE
COAST OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA BEING DRAWN TOWARD FELIX. NE UPPER
WINDS COVER MOST OF THE E CARIBBEAN WITH A WEAK INVERTED TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO TO NEAR
20N56W. DRY STABLE AIR IS FILTERING IN THE WAKE OF FELIX OVER
THE E CARIBBEAN CLEARING SKIES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME LOW
LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN N OF 16N E OF 70E.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH 33N77W SW TO NE FLORIDA
S OF JACKSONVILLE. THE 1011 MB LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH MENTIONED
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE IS ASSOCIATED. AN UPPER HIGH
COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 58W. AN ELONGATED
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM
30N50W TO NEAR 22N54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS DOT THE AREA N OF 25N
FROM 50W-60W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE
TYPICAL E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFF AFRICA TO NEAR 50W
CENTERED ROUGHLY ALONG 23W/24W. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS
THE ATLC E OF 50W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 32N27W
WSW TO 26N50W WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS
THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE


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