[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 030602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE FELIX IS CENTERED NEAR 14.0N 74.9W OR ABOUT
255 NM SSE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AT 03/0600 UTC...MOVING W AT 18
KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS
FROM AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 935 MB. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 145 KT WITH GUSTS TO 175 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS
INCLUDING THE LATEST WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION. FELIX
CONTINUES ON A W PATH STEERED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER
THE ATLC INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. FELIX CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY
IMPRESSIVE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH A WELL DEFINED EYE AND
BROAD OUTFLOW MOSTLY TO THE N OF THE HURRICANE. SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM OF THE CENTER IN ALL
QUADRANTS.

A 1010 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM IS CENTERED NEAR 11N39W MOVING
GENERALLY SW NEAR 5 KT. THE SYSTEM REMAINS DISORGANIZED WITH
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION DISPLACED W OF
THE LOW FROM 10N-13N BETWEEN 40W-46W. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS
WELL-DEFINED ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT AT THIS TIME BUT THERE IS STILL SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23W S OF 21N MOVING W 10-15 KT. SATELLITE
IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A BROAD REGION OF LOW/MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE. HOWEVER...NO
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS CURRENTLY VERY
LIMITED.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS ADDED ALONG 54W S OF 20N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WAVE HAS A CLASSIC BROAD INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH A MID LEVEL
CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE WAVE NEAR 15N. HOWEVER...SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AND SHOWER
ACTIVITY IS SEVERELY LIMITED DUE TO THE DRY STABLE AIR OF THE
ATLC.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN IS TILTED FROM 21N86W SE ACROSS
CENTRAL AMERICA NEAR 15N85W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE CONTINUES
TO INTERACT WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE W AND PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF A LINE FROM 20N84W
TO PANAMA NEAR 9N79W WITH THE LARGEST CONCENTRATION OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS BETWEEN 19N AND THE
COAST OF HONDURAS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 15N16W 12N26W 12N37W 9N45W 10N52W
9N61W. IN ADDITION TO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1010 MB LOW
IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION...CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION ARE FROM 6N-12N E OF 31W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA AND
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 52W-57W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A REMNANT SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE N GULF COAST
EXTENDING FROM A WEAK 1015 MB LOW OFF THE FLORIDA NE COAST
ACROSS N FLORIDA PENINSULA THEN NE TO OVER S ALABAMA/
MISSISSIPPI TO THE E TEXAS DELINEATED BY A WIND SHIFT. THE
TROUGH IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SW
FLORIDA PENINSULA S OF 24N TO OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS E OF 84W. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO TO ALONG THE TEXAS COAST
TO SW LOUISIANA COVERING THE W GULF WITH AN UPPER HIGH OVER
FLORIDA NEAR TAMPA INDUCING AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO IS PRODUCING A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST FROM THE W BAY OF
CAMPECHE TO JUST OFFSHORE NEAR BROWNSVILLE TEXAS COUPLED WITH
THE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE OVER THE W GULF IS GENERATING
SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 21N-25N W OF 96W TO INLAND OVER
MEXICO. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA REMAINS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL
TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE FELIX IS THE MAIN FOCUS TONIGHT AS
IT MOVES ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN. ALL INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. FOR MORE DETAILS ON FELIX REFER TO THE SPECIAL
FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE
IN THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 85W AND AN INVERTED MID/UPPER TROUGH
THAT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL AMERICA TO THE W YUCATAN CHANNEL IS
PRODUCING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE
ABOVE. SEE ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. A SMALL UPPER LOW IS SITUATED
BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA...AND CUBA IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER W CUBA AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FROM 80W-84W. UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH FELIX IS
PRODUCING GOOD OUTFLOW OVER FELIX FROM 66W-80W. DRY STABLE AIR
IS FILTERING IN THE WAKE OF FELIX OVER THE E CARIBBEAN CLEARING
SKIES ESPECIALLY FROM OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO PUERTO RICO.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SMALL UPPER LOW IS SITUATED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS...FLORIDA...
AND CUBA NEAR 24N80W PRODUCING ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE N
AND CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS. A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH N OF THE
REGION IS DRAPING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE REGION NEAR 32N57W
SW ALONG 29N62W TO 29N69W WHERE IT BECOMES NEAR STATIONARY ALONG
32N76W TO THE WEAK 1015 MB LOW OFF THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR 31N80W
CONTINUING AS A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE N GULF
OF MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 180
NM OF THE FRONT E OF 63W. A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE COVERS THE
REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC WITH A WEAK 1019 MB HIGH LOCATED NEAR
25N66W. A NARROW AND ELONGATED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 25N54W WITH THE UPPER TROUGH
EXTENDING FROM 29N51W TO JUST E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR
15N59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY THE TYPICAL
E/W UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM OFF AFRICA TO NEAR 45W CENTERED
ROUGHLY ALONG 23W/24W. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE ATLC E
OF 50W WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 32N32W TO A 1021
MB HIGH NEAR 28N44W TO THE 1019 MB HIGH IN THE W ATLC ACROSS S
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE EASTERLY
TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE ATLC.

$$
WALLACE


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