[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 021753
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN SEP 2 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HURRICANE FELIX IS NOW A MAJOR HURRICANE. FELIX IS CENTERED NEAR
13.4N 71.2W OR ABOUT 425 NM SE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA AT 02/1800
UTC...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 16 KT. THE HURRICANE HUNTER
PLANE REPORTED THAT THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS FALLEN TO
964 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
FELIX CONTINUES ON A WNW PATH STEERED BY A STRONG DEEP-LAYER
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
DATA FROM CURACAO SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE...EYEWALL AND
RAINBANDS. IN ADDITION...FELIX HAS GAINED SYMMETRY TO ITS CLOUD
PATTERN AND CONVECTION. NUMEROUS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
EXISTS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 270 NM N...NEARING THE S SHORE OF
HISPANIOLA...AND WITHIN 150 NM S OVER NRN VENEZUELA AND
COLOMBIA. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS INCLUDING THE LATEST WATCH AND WARNING
INFORMATION.

A 1009 MB LOW PRES SYSTEM...ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE...IS
CENTERED NEAR 12N39W MOVING W 10 KT. WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION IS WELL DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGES AND IN AN
EARLIER QSCAT PASS CONVECTION REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE W OF
THE CENTER...STRONGLY SHEARED BY UPPER E/SELY FLOW ON THE SW
PERIPHERY OF A STRONG UPPER HIGH. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
STRETCHES FAIRLY FAR TO THE NW OF THE LOW FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN
41W-47W...ENHANCED BY SPEED CONVERGENCE. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR THIS SYSTEM TO BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES INTO A LESS HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS TITLED ALONG 21N21W 6N19W ESTIMATED TO BE
MOVING W 10-15 KT. SOUNDING DATA FROM DAKAR SHOWS A WAVE PASSAGE
SOMETIME BEFORE 00Z. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A BROAD GYRE
TYPE CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 15N21W. THERE IS A SURGE
SIGNATURE TO THE NRN PART OF THE WAVE...HENCE THE REASON FOR THE
TITLED STRUCTURE. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS LIMITED LIKELY SUPPRESSED
BY STABLE LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR SURROUNDING THIS FEATURE.

TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE W CARIB ALONG 82W/83W S OF 22N MOVING W
15 KT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THIS WAVE HAS A TITLED ELY SURGE
TYPE STRUCTURE. THE INTERACTION WITH AN INVERTED MID TO UPPER
TROUGH HAS PRODUCED DISORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS.

THE NRN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER S MEXICO ALONG
92W/93W S OF 18N. REFER TO THE EAST PACIFIC TWD...MIATWDEP...FOR
DETAILS.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 12N21W 13N37W 8N40W 10N62W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE AXIS
BETWEEN 22W-30W. ISOLATED MODERATE IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN
32W-42W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FRONT IS STALLED ACROSS THE N GULF COAST EXTENDING FROM N
FLORIDA TO THE TEXAS COAST ALONG 29N. SFC OBS IN THE AREA
INDICATE A PRONOUNCED WIND SHIFT AND ABOUT A 5 F DEG DEWPT
CHANGE. THERE IS SOME OVERRUNNING PRECIP ACROSS THE NW GULF N OF
28N W OF 90W. MORE ORGANIZED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE IN
THE WRN-MOST GULF S OF 27N W OF 94W ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW-LEVEL
TROUGH ALONG 97W AND A HIGHLY DIFFLUENT UPPER PATTERN. THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH PATCHES OF
ISOLATED SHOWERS ROTATING AROUND AN INVERTED MID TO UPPER TROUGH
WHICH EXTENDS NWD FROM THE W CARIB INTO THE CENTRAL GULF.
SHIP...BUOY AND QSCAT DATA INDICATE THAT WINDS ARE LIGHT AND
VARIABLE IN THE E AND MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF BUT INCREASE OUT
OF THE E/SE IN THE W GULF WHERE THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. LOOKING
AHEAD A DAY OR TWO...CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY GET EVEN QUIETER IN
THE REGION AS WEAK HIGH PRES DEVELOPS IN THE N CENTRAL GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE FELIX IS THE MAIN EVENT IN THE CARIB
BASIN. CURRENTLY...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA AND GRAND CAYMAN. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM. FELIX HAS PRODUCED A 24-H RAINFALL TOTAL OF 2.14
INCHES IN CURACAO AND MORE IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY.
IN GENERAL...RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE
MAXIMUM ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...THE PARAGUANA PENINSULA OF NORTHWESTERN
VENEZUELA AND THE GUAJIRA PENINSULA OF NORTHERN COLOMBIA. FOR
MORE DETAILS ON FELIX REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION
ABOVE. THE INTERACTION BETWEEN A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIB
ALONG 83W AND AN INVERTED MID TO UPPER TROUGH IS PRODUCING A
FAIR AMOUNT OF ACTIVITY IN THE W CARIB. SEE ABOVE FOR MORE
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...MID TO UPPER RIDGING N OF FELIX IS EXPECTED
TO EXPAND W STEERING FELIX TO THE WNW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS ACROSS THE CARIB SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL ZONE STRETCHES E-W ALONG OUR N BORDER FROM
S OF BERMUDA TO THE NE FLORIDA COAST. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS SOME
ROTATION TO THE SCATTERED SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST FROM 30N-32N BETWEEN 79W-81W. THIS AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AS IT DRIFTS EWD. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE N OF 28N BETWEEN 55W-64W. THIS IS
PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE FRONT
PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. HIGH LEVEL
CLOUDINESS SPREADS MUCH FARTHER S DRIVEN BY STRONG NLY FLOW
BETWEEN AN UPPER RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 27N68W AND AN UPPER LOW
NEAR 26N53W. FARTHER W...A MID-LEVEL LOW HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE
SW BAHAMAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN ITS
CIRCULATION ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS.
IN THE E ATLC...A DOMINATING UPPER HIGH REMAINS PARKED ACROSS
THE SUBTROPICS NEAR 23N27W. ABUNDANT DRY AIR ALOFT IS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS RIDGE. STRONG E TO SELY FLOW NEAR THE SW PERIPHERY
OF THIS HIGH IS SHEARING THE TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRES
ALONG 39W. ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING HAS
STRENGTHENED A BIT BUT HAS ALSO PRESSED FURTHER S. THIS PATTERN
HAS ALLOWED TRADES TO REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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