[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 020602
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN SEP 2 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

FELIX...THE SECOND HURRICANE OF THE 2007 HURRICANE SEASON WAS
CENTERED NEAR 12.7N 67.8W AT 02/0600 UTC...OR ABOUT 40 NM
NORTHEAST OF BONAIRE AND ABOUT 125 NM EAST OF ARUBA MOVING W
NEAR 16 KT. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE
HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 993 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE
65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. FELIX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A W
OR WNW TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS S OF RIDGING. WITH THE
WARM CARIBBEAN SEA AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT
EXPECTED ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED...AND FELIX WILL BE A MAJOR HURRICANE OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS
INCLUDING THE LATEST WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IN OUTER RAINBANDS IS SEEN OVER EASTERN
VENEZUELA AND OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE CENTER OF FELIX IS
VERY WELL DEFINED IN THE DUTCH ANTILLES RADAR. A GENERAL MOTION
TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF FELIX JUST NORTH
OF BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA ON SUNDAY.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W...ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
AFRICA AND THE LESSER ANTILLES...MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT
15 TO 20 MPH. THIS SYSTEM HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN ORGANIZATION
TONIGHT...AND THERE IS STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR IT TO BECOME A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 38W-42W...DISPLACED
TO THE W OF THE EXPOSED CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF ELY SHEAR.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 80W/81W MOVING W NEAR
15 KT. THIS WAVE SHOWS AN INVERTED-V SHAPE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
WITH SCATTRED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF
AXIS. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS JUST SOUTH OF JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS. A DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...E OF AN UPPER TROUGH
MOVING INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING THIS ACTIVITY.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE YUCATAN PENINSULA/GUATEMALA S OF 20N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE COUPLED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH IS
GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER N CENTRAL AMERICA
AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 13N17W 10N35W 8N40W 12N61W. BESIDES
FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE MAINLY S OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN
23W-44W...AND WITHIN ABOUT 100 NM N OF AXIS BETWEEN 21W-27W.
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION ARE APPROACHING THE
WEST COAST OF AFRICA PROBABLY ASSOCIATED WITH A NEW TROPICAL
WAVE.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRES PATTERN CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE GULF
TONIGHT RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS/LOW SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. A
WEAK SFC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE FAR WEST GULF PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS MAINLY WEST OF 92W. THIS
ACTIVITY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY VERY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S
THROUGH W/CENTRAL TEXAS. A STATIONARY FRONT HUNG UP ALONG THE
NRN GULF COAST WITH A 1014 MB SFC LOW ALONG THE FRONT NEAR
30N85W. A SFC TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 28N87W. A
MOSAIC RADAR LOOP OVER THE SE U.S. SHOWS SOME SHOWER/TSTM
ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT PARTICULARLY OVER EASTERN
TEXAS AND JUST OFF THE SE U.S. NEAR THE GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA
BORDER. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH
PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MODELS
SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE
STATIONARY FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE TODAY.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
HURRICANE FELIX REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST ACROSS THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. CURRENTLY...WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT
FOR THE ABC ISLANDS AND JAMAICA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FELIX IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER THE OFFSHORE ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA
AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND
CURACAO. FOR MORE DETAILS ON FELIX REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE
SECTION ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE ALONG
80W/81W. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...OUTER RAINBANDS OF FELIX ARE
REACHING THE CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS OF PUERTO RICO AND ST.
CROIX. THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING THIS ACTIVITY.
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS ST. CROIX REPORTED HEAVY RAIN AND
GUSTY WINDS OF 17 KT. MID TO UPPER RIDGING N OF FELIX IS
EXPECTED TO EXPAND W STEERING FELIX TO THE W OR WNW OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE CARIB SEA. AN INVERTED TROUGH IS
OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER N FLORIDA AND SE GEORGIA GENERATING
SCATTRED SHOWERS AND TSTMS. A WEAK SFC TROUGH CLIPS THE FORECAST
AREA ALONG 30N WEST OF 70W. A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS IS WITHIN 80 NM AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. FURTHER EAST
THERE IS ANOTHER SFC TROUGH TILTED ALONG 30N50W 22N54W. THIS
TROUGH...REFLECTION OF AN UPPER LOW MENTIONED BELOW IS ALSO
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS. A WEAK SFC RIDGE ANCHORED ON A 1023
MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N47W DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE
BASIN PRODUCING MOSTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE AREA
E OF 55W. LIGHT WINDS ARE ALSO FOUND OVER MOST OF THE REGION W
OF 55W AROUND A RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY ALONG 26N...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY
STRONGER ELY WINDS CLOSER TO THE CARIBBEAN S OF 22N BETWEEN
60W-73W IN RESPONSE TO THE GRADIENT N OF FELIX. ALOFT...AN UPPER
HIGH/TROUGH/HIGH PATTERN DOMINATES THE DISCUSSION AREA. AN UPPER
HIGH IS NEAR 26N67W COVERING THE WESTERN ATLC. AN UPPER LOW IS
NEAR 26N53W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS RELATIVELY QUIET
DOMINATED BY A STRONG MID TO UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N30W.
STRONG E TO SE FLOW ON THE SW SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS SHEARING THE
LARGE TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE E ATLC.

$$
GR


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