[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 020005
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT SEP 1 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

RECENTLY UPGRADED HURRICANE FELIX WAS CENTERED NEAR 12.6N 66.0W
AT 02/0000 UTC...OR ABOUT 135 NM ENE OF BONAIR AND ABOUT 235 NM
E OF ARUBA...MOVING W NEAR 16 KT. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE WAS 993 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. FELIX IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON A W OR WNW TRACK OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS S OF RIDGING. WITH THE WARM CARIBBEAN SEA AND A FAVORABLE
UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT EXPECTED ALONG THE FORECAST
TRACK...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. SEE LATEST NHC
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS
INCLUDING THE LATEST WATCH AND WARNING INFORMATION. NUMEROUS
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR THE CORE OF DEAN IS FROM
11N-14N BETWEEN 64W-67W. SCATTERED MODERATE IN OUTER RAINBANDS
IS ELSEWHERE FROM 8N-17N BETWEEN 59W-71W. THE CENTER OF FELIX IS
NOW EVIDENT IN THE DUTCH ANTILLES RADAR. FELIX WILL BE PASSING
NEAR OR TO THE NORTH OF THE ISLANDS OF ARUBA...BONAIRE AND
CURACAO LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 36W...MIDWAY BETWEEN AFRICA AND
THE LESSER ANTILLES...S OF 18N MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. A 1009 MB
LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N36W. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER
ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-15N BETWEEN 37W-41W...DISPLACED TO THE W
OF THE EXPOSED CENTER WITH ABOUT 20 KT OF ELY SHEAR OVER THE
SYSTEM AS DEPICTED BY THE LATEST UW-CIMSS SHEAR ANALYSIS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS TILTED ALONG 23N80W TO THE
COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER NEAR 8N77W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. THIS WAVE
SHOWS AN ELONGATED ZONE OF LOW TO MID LEVEL TURNING MOVING INTO
THE WRN CARIBBEAN. ASSOCIATED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
TSTMS ARE FOCUSED FROM 12N-19N BETWEEN 76W-83W. THIS ACTIVITY
IS ALSO BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN
ADDITION TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT E OF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING
INTO THE WRN CARIBBEAN.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 88W S OF 19N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THIS WAVE
REMAINS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE THIS EVENING IN THE AVAILABLE DATA.
LITTLE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS IN THE VICINITY OF THIS ANALYZED
FEATURE.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 14N17W 14N35W 8N39W 11N59W. BESIDES
FOR THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE S OF THE AXIS FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN
19W-33W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A FAIRLY WEAK SFC PRES PATTERN DOMINATES THE GULF THIS EVENING
RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS/LOW SEAS ACROSS THE BASIN. THE WEAK
PATTERN CONSISTS OF A 1018 MB HIGH S OF LOUISIANA NEAR
26N90W...A TROUGH IN THE WRN PORTION EXTENDING S FROM OFFSHORE
CORPUS CHRISTI NEAR 27N95W TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR
19N95W...AND A STATIONARY FRONT HUNG UP ALONG THE NRN GULF
COAST. THE TROUGH IN THE W/SW GULF IS PRODUCING SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 28N W OF 92W...AND IS ALSO BEING
SUPPORTED BY VERY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S THROUGH
W/CENTRAL TEXAS. A MOSAIC RADAR LOOP OVER THE SE U.S. SHOWS THE
SLOW MOVING FRONT WELL...WITH QUITE A FEW CELLS MOVING
CYCLONICALLY AROUND THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN LOUISIANA AND NE
FLORIDA. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS RELATIVELY TRANQUIL WITH
PATCHES OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MODELS
SUGGEST LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON HURRICANE FELIX MOVING ACROSS THE
SE CARIB. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE OFFSHORE
ISLANDS OF VENEZUELA AND THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES ISLANDS OF
ARUBA...BONAIRE AND CURACAO. FOR MORE DETAILS ON FELIX REFER TO
THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. A TROPICAL WAVE REMAINS
FAIRLY ACTIVE S/SW OF JAMAICA...REFER TO THAT SECTION ABOVE FOR
DETAILS. ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE A COUPLE OF SHOWERS/TSTMS OVER
CUBA...HAITI...AND A PORTION OF THE NW CARIB ASSOCIATED WITH
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND UPPER TROUGHING IN THE REGION. MID TO
UPPER RIDGING N OF FELIX IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND W STEERING FELIX
TO THE W OR WNW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ACROSS THE CARIB
SEA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXIST N OF 27N W OF 77W THROUGH N
FLORIDA/SE GEORGIA. THIS ACTIVITY IS BEING TRIGGERED BY
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE WRN
ATLC EXTENDING W THROUGH THE NRN GULF COAST...WHICH ENTERS THE
AREA NEAR 32N77W AND CONTINUES WSW TO THE SE GEORGIA COAST.
SIMILAR SCATTERED SHOWERS EXIST N OF 26N BETWEEN 60W-68W. THIS
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY PREFRONTAL TROUGHING JUST N OF THE AREA IN
ADDITION TO DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH NEAR 28N68W. AN UPPER LOW IS NEAR 28N53W...AND THE
LAST FEW VIS PICTURES THIS EVENING SUGGEST THERE MAY BE SOME
WEAK SFC TROUGHING IN THIS VICINITY AS WELL. THESE FEATURES ONLY
APPEAR TO BE GENERATING A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 21N-25N
BETWEEN 52W-59W. THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS RELATIVELY QUIET
DOMINATED BY A STRONG MID TO UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N30W.
STRONG E TO SE FLOW ON THE SW SIDE OF THIS HIGH IS SHEARING THE
LARGE TROPICAL WAVE AND AREA OF LOW PRES IN THE E ATLC.

ELSEWHERE AT THE SFC...FAIRLY WEAK RIDGING DOMINATES AROUND A
1024 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 34N48W. THIS IS PRODUCING MOSTLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE TRADES ACROSS THE AREA E OF 55W. LIGHT WINDS
ARE ALSO FOUND OVER MOST OF THE REGION W OF 55W AROUND A RIDGE
AXIS GENERALLY ALONG 26N...EXCEPT SLIGHTLY STRONGER ELY WINDS
CLOSER TO THE CARIBBEAN S OF 22N BETWEEN 60W-73W IN RESPONSE TO
THE GRADIENT N OF FELIX.

$$
WILLIS


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