[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMFL 312158
HLSMFL
AMZ630-650-651-670-671-FLZ168-172-173-010400-

TROPICAL STORM NOEL LOCAL STATEMENT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
557 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR COASTAL SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...

...NEW INFORMATION...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA
COAST INCLUDING IMMEDIATE COASTAL PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-
DADE COUNTIES.

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDING BISCAYNE BAY: PALM BEACH...
BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL SECTIONS
FROM NORTH OF OCEAN REEF TO JUPITER INLET. THIS INCLUDES ALL OF
IMMEDIATE COASTAL PALM BEACH...BROWARD...AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6
NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.8 WEST. THIS IS ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST
OF MIAMI. NOEL HAS BEEN STATIONARY FOR THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS BUT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD MOTION LATER TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF NOEL WOULD REMAIN WELL
OFFSHORE THE SOUTHEAST FLORIDA COAST. HOWEVER...THE OUTER EDGE OF
THE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND FIELD IS EXPECTED TO PASS CLOSE TO THE
COAST ON THURSDAY.

THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AS FAR AS THE EXACT TRACK AND
LOCATION OF THE OUTER WIND FIELD OF NOEL. HOWEVER, A TROPICAL STORM
WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS IN THE WATCH AREA ARE URGED TO MONITOR THE
LATEST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE PROTECTIVE ACTIONS IN CASE WARNINGS ARE NEEDED.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE EXTREME CAUTION TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS
WINDS WILL MAKE DRIVING HAZARDOUS...PARTICULARLY OVER BRIDGES AND
CAUSEWAYS.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
STORM TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOUT 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST FROM MIAMI-DADE COUNTY THROUGH PALM
BEACH COUNTY. SEVERE BEACH EROSION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE PALM
BEACH COUNTY BEACHES...PARTICULARLY FROM LANTANA NORTH TO JUPITER
WHERE EXTREME BEACH EROSION HAS ALREADY OCCURRED. COASTAL
FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTHERN PALM BEACH COUNTY
COAST...ESPECIALLY DURING THE NEXT HIGH TIDE WHICH WILL BE AROUND 2
AM.

ALONG THE BROWARD AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTY COASTS...MINOR TO MODERATE
BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED.

...WINDS...
NORTHEAST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 4O MPH WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS METRO AND COASTAL SECTIONS OF MIAMI-DADE...BROWARD AND PALM
BEACH COUNTIES TONIGHT. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

BASED ON THE LATEST FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS...39 MPH OR
GREATER...MAY AFFECT THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS ON THURSDAY. THE
MOST LIKELY TIME OF TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WOULD BE STARTING IN
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUING INTO THE AFTERNOON ON
THURSDAY.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE/TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...
FACTORING IN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE FORECAST TRACK, INTENSITY, AND SIZE
OF THE STORM, THERE IS A 10 TO 13 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE CONDITIONS, WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH, FROM KEY BISCAYNE AND
MIAMI BEACH TO FORT LAUDERDALE, AND 7 TO 9 PERCENT FROM NORTH OF FORT
LAUDERDALE TO JUPITER.

...INLAND FLOODING...
AT THIS TIME...WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM THIS SYSTEM.

...TORNADOES...
ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

...LOCAL MARINE IMPACTS...
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 KNOTS WITH SEAS OF 12
TO 15 FEET ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA. THIS WILL CAUSE VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS
AND BISCAYNE BAY. VERY ROUGH SURF AND STRONG RIP CURRENTS WILL
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT ON TROPICAL STORM NOEL WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
MIAMI WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE AROUND MIDNIGHT.

$$

MOLLEDA



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