[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 311742
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS CENTERED NEAR 22.7N 78.5W AT 31/1500 UTC
ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA ABOUT 175 NM SSW OF NASSAU IN THE
BAHAMAS MOVING NNW AT 7 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 994 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO
55 KT. SEE THE NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/ WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS THROUGH THU BEFORE BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL AND CURVING E FRI. SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED BEFORE IT BEGINS ITS MOVE MORE TO THE NE. UPPER LEVEL
DRY SLOT REMAINS JUST TO THE W OF THE CENTER KEEPING THE
ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION TO THE N AND E OF THE CENTER.
NUMEROUS CONVECTION IS N OF CUBA ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-27N
BETWEEN 72W-78W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 73W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM E OF WAVE AXIS.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 6N25W 11N45W 9N61W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST
OF AFRICA FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 10W-15W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 200 NM S OF THE ITCZ
AXIS FROM 15W-25W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS FLORIDA JUST N OF TAMPA NEAR
28N83W AND INTO THE GULF ALONG 27N88W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 24N E OF 92W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
MOVING ACROSS THE N GULF EXTENDING FROM MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA
BORDER SW TO NEAR 25N95W. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH N OF THE REGION NEAR MARYLAND COMBINED
WITH TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS PRODUCING STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE
EASTERN GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE EFFECTS T.S. NOEL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS CIRCULATING AROUND THE STORM...N OF 17N W OF
JAMAICA. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NOEL FROM CENTRAL
CUBA S TO NEAR THE COAST OF COSTA RICA NEAR 11N83W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN W
OF 80W TO THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY
A BROAD ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC WITH A STATIONARY
FRONT FROM 32N48W TO N FLORIDA NEAR 29N81W. THE FRONT SHOULD
START TO DISSIPATE AS THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PULLS FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL
STORM NOEL EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC S OF 31N W
OF 57W PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW MOSTLY NE OF THE NOEL. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN TROPICAL STORM NOEL AND THE LARGE
SURFACE HIGH OVER MARYLAND IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
THE W ATLC N OF NOEL W OF 65W. A CUT-OFF UPPER LOW IS IN THE
TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 16N51W IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS FROM
10N-19N BETWEEN 45W-53W. AN E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM
OFF AFRICA ALONG 9N/10N TO 40W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE
E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 24W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 31N28W TO
26N45W.

$$
DGS



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