[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 310002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

NOEL IS DUMPING HEAVY RAINS OVER CUBA AND HISPANIOLA. AT 01/0000
UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED INLAND NEAR
LATITUDE 21.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 78.1 WEST OR ABOUT 20 NM...40
KM...SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF CAMAGUEY CUBA AND ABOUT 240 NM...440
KM...SOUTH OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS. NOEL HAS BEEN DRIFTING
SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...
THE CENTER OF NOEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER CUBA OVERNIGHT...
BUT EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA ON WEDNESDAY.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS ARE NOW NEAR 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. LITTLE CHANGE IN
STRENGTH IS FORECAST UNTIL THE SYSTEM EMERGES BACK OVER WATER
NORTH OF CUBA. SEE THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SATELLITE IMAGERY...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR FROM CAMAGUEY CUBA INDICATE THAT
CENTER OF NOEL REMAINS INLAND OVER EASTERN CUBA. HOWEVER...
RAINBANDS CONTINUE TO EXTEND WELL AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND ARE
SPREADING INTO THE BAHAMAS. A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED EAST OF NOEL OVER LAS TUNAS. THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER
HISPANIOLA...SOUTHEASTERN CUBA... AND THE BAHAMAS. THESE RAINS
ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES. IN ADDITION TO THE RAINFALL THREAT...THE INTERACTION
BETWEEN NOEL...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLC STATES...
AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA IS
PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY ENE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF FLORIDA AND
THE ADJACENT WATERS. DOPPLER RADAR IS SHOWING QUICK PASSING
SHOWERS OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 18N MOVING W 10-15 KT. THE
WAVE STILL SHOWS UP IN THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT AND 850 MB
SATELLITE DERIVED VORTICITY. HOWEVER...THE WAVE MAY EVENTUALLY
NEED TO BE DROPPED SOMETIME OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THE
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE/ENERGY MOVES NW WITH SE FLOW BEHIND OF T.S.
NOEL...AND POSSIBLY GETS ABSORBED BY THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE
WAVE ITSELF IS PROBABLY GENERATING SOME SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N13W 8N28W 7N35W 5N45W 3N56W. A
FAIRLY LARGE AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER IS WITHIN AROUND 200 NM
NORTH OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 30W-40W.  A CLUSTER OF MODERATE TO
STRONG CONVECTION INLAND OVER SIERRA LEONE.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA W
ACROSS THE MIDDLE GULF TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...GENERALLY ALONG
28N81W 25N90W 18N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE
MAINLY WITHIN 80 NM AHEAD OF THE WRN PORTION OF THE FRONT N OF
THE YUCATAN. THE FRONT REMAINS EVIDENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AS A
RAGGED BAND OF BROKEN LOW TO MID CLOUDS AND IS FORECAST TO
BECOME DIFFUSE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE
STILL BLOWING BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...BUT
ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS PRES GRADIENT RELAXES OVER
THE WESTERN GULF. HOWEVER...THE DIFFERENCE IN PRESSURE BETWEEN A
SFC HIGH OVER THE MID ATLC STATES AND T.S. NOEL WILL KEEP WINDS
FAIRLY STRONG OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE EASTERN GULF
DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ALOFT...FLOW IS FAIRLY UNIFORM SW
AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NEARING THE COAST OF TEXAS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL REMAINS THE MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST. GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 40 KT AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN HAVE BEEN REPORTED OVER
EASTERN CUBA ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROPICAL STORM THAT HAS SPENT
THE DAY OVER THE PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR
DETAILS. TROUGHING S OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE DOMINATES
MUCH OF THE WRN CARIBBEAN. DEEP LOW LEVEL CONVERGENT FLOW E OF
NOEL IS PRODUCING POCKETS OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS OVER
THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO HISPANIOLA. LIGHTNING DATA DEPICTS
SCATTERED TSTMS OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
THIS ACTIVITY MAY ALSO BE GETTING SOME SUPPORT BY AN UPPER COL
REGION BETWEEN ANTICYCLONES OVER THE E AND W PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO OVER THE SW
CARIBBEAN ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM
JAMAICA TO THE COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER. TRADE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DISRUPTED OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO THE TROUGHING S OF T.S. NOEL. LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADES ARE ANTICIPATED OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE TROPICAL STORM NOEL OVER CUBA.
NOEL IS INTERACTING WITH STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLC
STATES AND A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING ENE FROM CENTRAL
FLORIDA...WHICH IS PRODUCING STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE SEAS
OVER MUCH OF THE WRN ATLC. SEE DETAILS ABOVE IN SPECIAL FEATURE
SECTION. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/SCATTERED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CIRCULATION OF NOEL ARE MAINLY S OF 25N BETWEEN 70W-78W. THIS
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS MAINLY AFFECTING THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND
COASTAL WATERS. UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LOW JUST N OF
ERN CUBA...AND RIDGING EXTENDING N INTO THE ATLC FROM THE ERN
CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING THIS ACTIVITY. A WEAK SFC TROUGH IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 30N52W 24N56W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. AN
UPPER LOW NEAR 18N52W IS GENERATING HIGH CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 15N-23N BETWEEN 40W-50W. THE REMAINDER OF
THE E ATLC IS MOSTLY QUIET UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SFC RIDGE
WITH TYPICAL PATCHES OF STABLE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. TRADES ARE
MOSTLY MODERATE OVER THE AREA S OF 25N E OF 60W...WITH SLIGHTLY
STRONGER NE WINDS NOTED JUST OFF THE COAST OF NW AFRICA IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CANARY ISLANDS. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE
NE PORTION OF THE AREA...BUT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GENERATING
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER.

$$
GR


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