[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 301435
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS CENTERED NEAR 21.0N 76.8W AT 30/1200 UTC
VERY NEAR THE TOWN OF GIBARA ON THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA OR ABOUT
275 MILES S OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS MOVING W AT 10 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE THE NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC
AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE
DETAILS. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR FROM HOLGUIN CUBA
INDICATE THAT CENTER OF NOEL HAS BEEN HUGGING THE NORTH COAST OF
CUBA. CONVECTION CONTINUES TO STREAM FROM THE CARIBBEAN E OF
NOEL THEN TO THE NE OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM OF LINE FROM THE NE COAST OF CUBA
NEAR 21N75W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 25N72W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120/150 NM OF
LINE FROM OVER COLOMBIA/VENEZUELA NEAR 11N72W TO OVER HISPANIOLA
NEAR 20N71W. HEAVY SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE TO THE E OF THE STORM FROM 16N-27N BETWEEN 65W-72W INCLUDING
PUERTO RICO. NOEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR RAIN MAKER AGAIN
THIS MORNING FOR HISPANIOLA AND THE S BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE
TURKS AND CAICOS. THESE RAINS COULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS
BECOMING LESS DEFINED AS IT APPROACHES THE AREA OF T.S. NOEL.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE S OF 15N FROM 60W-66W INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N10W 7N18W 9N29W 5N41W 4N53W.
BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180
NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 20W-45W WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 180 NM S OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM
24W-40W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN
90/120 ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 53W-62W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 30/0900 UTC A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF JUST N OF TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR
28N83W ALONG 27N91W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W BASED ON
DEW POINT DIFFERENCE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH A DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE GULF WITHIN 175 NM OF THE FRONT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE FRONT W
OF 87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N AND W OF THE
FRONT. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE
HIGH ANCHORED N OF THE REGION OVER THE CAROLINAS/VIRGINIA AREA
AND THE APPROACHING TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS PRODUCING STRONG NE
WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS ABOVE 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF WITH GALE FORCE
WINDS OVER THE SW GULF. THE SE GULF IS MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
SOME LOW LEVEL ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS EXTREME S
FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS W OF 84W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS NOW N OF CUBA THE EFFECTS REMAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING. FLASH
FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES CONTINUE TO BE CONCERN OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA. THESE HEAVY RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS E CUBA IS BEGINNING TO SEE THE EFFECTS
AS THE STORM MOVES ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA. ELSEWHERE...A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF NOEL ACROSS THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA NEAR 19N76W OVER JAMAICA ALONG 16N78W TO
11N82W. A BROAD UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH NOEL COVERS MOST OF
THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE COAST OF CENTRAL
AMERICA FROM N COSTA RICA TO OVER BELIZE.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NE US AND E CANADA INTO
THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N61W S OF BERMUDA TO
30N68W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO JUST S OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA BASED ON DE POINT
DIFFERENCE. THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. NOEL EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER
OF THE W ATLC S OF 31N FROM 60W-77W PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW
MOSTLY NE OF THE SYSTEM. A DRY SLOT IS JUST TO THE W OF NOEL
FROM OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS TO ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA LIMITING
CONVECTION ON THAT SIDE. THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
T.S. NOEL AND THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED OVER CAROLINAS/
VIRGINIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE SE US COAST AND
STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A
NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N43W ALONG 26N49W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR 20N51W TO NEAR
13N53W. A SWATH OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS E OF THE UPPER
TROUGH AXIS COVERING THE AREA FROM 13N-32N BETWEEN 51W-60W. A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DRY STABLE AIR
THROUGH 32N54W SW TO 26N63W. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR
20N40W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND 32N30W
PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 200 NM OF LINE
FROM 14N49W TO BEYOND 23N44W. THE E ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING TO S OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF
25W AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING S TO 18N E OF 45W ANCHORED
WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE





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