[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300555
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT TUE OCT 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS CENTERED NEAR 21.2N 75.6W AT 30/0600 UTC
NEAR OR OVER PUNTA LUCRECIA ON THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA OR 250 NM
SSE OF NASSAU IN THE BAHAMAS MOVING WNW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE
PLANE INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED HAS INCREASED TO 50
KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEE THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NOEL
REMAINS ILL-DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BUT IS WITH SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR FROM CUBA THE CENTER IS FAIRLY ACCURATELY
LOCATED. CONVECTION REMAINS MORE ELONGATED WITH CLUSTERS
STREAMING FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO N OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OVER THE N QUADRANT.
CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM
OVER COLOMBIA NEAR 11N72W OVER HISPANIOLA TO NEAR 20N71W. OUTER
RAINBANDS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE TO THE E OF THE STORM
WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM 21N65W 25N67W TO 26N72W. NOEL WILL
CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR RAIN MAKER AGAIN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY FOR
HISPANIOLA TO OVER THE S BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS.
THESE RAINS COULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 60W/61W S OF 18N MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE
IS BECOMING LESS DEFINED AS IT MOVES INTO THE CARIBBEAN DUE TO
THE CLOSE PROXIMITY TO T.S. NOEL. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N FROM 57W-65W INCLUDING THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N11W 7N29W 3N46W 6N57W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180
NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 19W-44W AND AND WITHIN 150 NM S OF
THE AXIS FROM 24W-41W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 180 NM ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTH
AMERICA FROM 52W-59W.

DISCUSSION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
AT 30/0300 UTC A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS
ACROSS N FLORIDA INTO THE GULF N OF TAMPA FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W
ALONG 26N91W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N93W BASED ON DEW
POINT DIFFERENCE. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY
COUPLED WITH A DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS ACROSS THE GULF WITHIN 150 NM OF THE FRONT AND
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE SE OF THE FRONT N
OF A LINE FROM FORT MYERS FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN NEAR 21N87W.
LOW LEVEL SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM NW OF THE FRONT.
THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE STRONG SURFACE HIGH
ANCHORED N OF THE REGION OVER THE VIRGINIA AND THE APPROACHING
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS PRODUCING STRONG NE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS
ABOVE 8 FT ACROSS THE GULF WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW
GULF. THE SE GULF IS MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT WITH SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA...THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE
FLORIDA STRAITS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ALTHOUGH TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS NOW N OF CUBA THE EFFECTS REMAIN
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. FLASH FLOODING AND MUD
SLIDES CONTINUE TO BE CONCERN OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS ISLANDS OF
HISPANIOLA. THESE HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS E CUBA
SHOULD BEGIN TO SEE THE EFFECTS AS THE STORM MOVES WNW. HEAVY
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF PUERTO RICO FROM 16N-19N
BETWEEN 64W-68W. ELSEWHERE...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM S OF
NOEL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM E CUBA NEAR 19N76W JUST E
OF JAMAICA ALONG 15N78W TO 12N82W. A BROAD UPPER HIGH ASSOCIATED
WITH NOEL COVERS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W. CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS
S OF 19N W OF 83W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NE US AND E CANADA INTO
THE NW ATLC EXTENDS A COLD FRONT THROUGH 32N62W JUST S OF
BERMUDA TO 30N73W WHERE IT CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA PRODUCING
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM
SE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH ASSOCIATED WITH
T.S. NOEL EXTENDS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC S OF 30N FROM
60W-76W PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW MOSTLY NE OF THE SYSTEM. A DRY
SLOT IS JUST TO THE NE OF NOEL LIMITING CONVECTION. THE TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN T.S. NOEL AND THE LARGE SURFACE HIGH
ANCHORED OVER VIRGINIA IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS OFF THE SE
US COAST AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS IN THE CENTRAL ATLC
EXTENDING THROUGH 32N44W ALONG 24N51W TO AN UPPER LOW NEAR
19N52W TO NEAR 14N52W. A SWATH OF MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS
E OF THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS COVERING THE AREA FROM 16N-32N
BETWEEN 52W-60W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS DRY
STABLE AIR THROUGH 32N50W SW TO 23N60W. AN UPPER HIGH IS LOCATED
NEAR 20N40W WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING NE TO BEYOND
32N30W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE
FROM 19N48W TO BEYOND 32N40W. THE E ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING S OVER THE CANARY ISLANDS E OF
25W AND A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING S TO 18N E OF 50W ANCHORED
WELL N OF THE REGION.

$$
WALLACE




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