[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NOEL EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN
COAST OF HAITI EARLIER TODAY...AND IS NOW JUST NORTH OF THE
EASTERN TIP OF CUBA. TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
SOUTHEAST FLORIDA LATER TONIGHT. AT 30/0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF
TROPICAL STORM NOEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...
LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST OR ABOUT 180 NM..335 KM...SSE OF GREAT EXUMA
ISLAND AND ABOUT 295 NM...550 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF NASSAU
MOVING NW AT 13 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
SEE THE NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION IS LIMITED BUT PLENTY OF RAINBANDS EXTEND WELL TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST...CONTINUING TO BRING HEAVY RAINS TO
HISPANIOLA. NOEL IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 10 TO 20 INCHES OVER HISPANIOLA...WITH POSSIBLE
ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 30 INCHES. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5
TO 10 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES...ARE
POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...AND THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO
5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PUERTO RICO THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.
THESE RAINS...PARTICULARLY IN HISPANIOLA ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. SHOWERS AND GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 26 KT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF
NOEL ARE ALREADY AFFECTING EASTERN CUBA...PARTICULARLY THE CITY
OF CAMAGUEY.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 59W/60W S OF 18N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE
SHOWS UP WELL IN LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS...850 MB
VORTICITY AND THE TPW PRODUCTS FROM CIMSS. A CLUSTER OF MODERATE
CONVECTION IS JUST AHEAD OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 13N61W AFFECTING
MARTINIQUE...SAINT LUCIA AND BARBADOS WITH SHOWERS...HEAVY AT
TIMES AND GUSTY WINDS. THE WAVE COUPLED WITH THE ITCZ IS ALSO
ENHANCING SOME SHOWER/TSTMS ACTIVITY OVER SURINAME...GUYANA AND
NE VENEZUELA.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS PRETTY ACTIVE THIS EVENING CENTERED ALONG 7N12W
8N25W 4N40W 4N50W 6N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 25W-33W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS
OVER GUYANA AND SURINAME.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA ALONG 28N81W 25N90W TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE. A BAND OF MULTILAYERED CLOUDS WITH EMBEDDED SHOWERS IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE
TIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND
STRONG HIGH PRES THAT COVERS THE U.S. GULF STATES AND NE MEXICO.
AS A RESULT...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT IN THE SW GULF S OF
21N W OF 93W...WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS NELY WINDS AT
20-25 KT. UPPER SWLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF. THESE WINDS ARE
TRANSPORTING SIGNIFICANT MID/UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ALL THE WAY NE TO N-CENTRAL FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC.
DRY STABLE AIR RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE DOMINATES THE NW
PORTION OF THE GULF. COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...NAMELY
THE NW GULF. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE AREA
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
MAINLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DUE TO THE MOIST ONSHORE
WINDS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
ATTENTION REMAINS FOCUSED ON T.S. NOEL THAT CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA AND REGIONAL COASTAL WATERS. SEE
SPECIAL FEATURE FOR MORE DETAILS. A TROPICAL WAVE IS JUST
ENTERING THE E CARIBBEAN AND WILL MOVE JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO
TOMORROW. SEE ABOVE. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN
EXTENDING FROM NOEL TO THE PANAMA/COSTA RICA BORDER. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE RELATED TO THE TROUGH. POCKETS OF
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA
ASSOCIATED WITH A FEEDER BAND OF NOEL. IN ADDITION...BANDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS...ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXTREME OUTER FRINGES OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROPICAL STORM...WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE
PUERTO RICO AND THE US/UK VIRGIN ISLANDS TONIGHT THROUGH AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TUESDAY. ALOFT...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N82W. AN UPPER LOW IS OVER THE
EASTER TIP OF CUBA WHILE ANOTHER UPPER HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 15N64W.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE FORECAST AREA NEAR 31N72W THEN
CONTINUES SW ACROSS THE W ATLC AND CENTRAL FLORIDA. A DIFFERENCE
IN PRESSURE BETWEEN NOEL AND STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE MID ATLC
STATES IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. A
HIGH WIND ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR PALM BEACH...BROWARD...
AND MIAMI-DADE COUNTIES IN SE FLORIDA BASE ON THE OFFICIAL NHC
FORECAST TRACK OF NOEL THAT BRINGS THE STORM CLOSER TO SE
FLORIDA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. A SURFACE TROUGH...REFLEXION OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG 31N49W
25N55W. DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH IS HELPING TO
INDUCE WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLC PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 40W-50W. A 1032 MB HIGH IS NE OF THE
AZORES EXTENDING A RIDGE SW TO 26N42W.
ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATES THE FORECAST
REGION.

$$
GR








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