[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291805
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS CENTERED NEAR 19.9N 73.0W AT 29/1500 UTC
OR ABOUT 80 MILES...130 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE EASTERN TIP
OF CUBA AND ABOUT 300 MILES...500 KM...SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS MOVING NNW AT 10 KT.  ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1003 MB.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO
50 KT.  SEE THE NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  CONVECTION IS MOSTLY E
AND N OF THE CENTER.  THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC IS GETTING THE
HEAVIEST CONVECTION.  THESE RAINS COULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 13N-24N BETWEEN 67W-72W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 57W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT.  WAVE
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SURGE TYPE APPEARANCE AS THE CURVATURE
BROADENS.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W
OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 57W-60W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N25W 5N35W 6N50W 9N60W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN
20W-24W.  SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 25W-38W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 40W-50W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN
51W-56W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA AT 28N81W
TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 25N90W 22N92W 18N93W.  THE FRONT IS
DRIFTING S OVER FLORIDA...AND IS DRIFTING N OVER THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES TO BE TIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN GULF THUS A GALE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WHILE
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF HAS NELY WINDS AT 20-25 KT.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW COVERS THE GULF.  SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE
IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND E GULF E OF THE LINE 30N86W
20N96W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE
GULF...NAMELY THE NW GULF.  EXPECT...THE FRONT TO CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
T.S. NOEL IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.  FURTHER W...A
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM S OF JAMAICA TO
COSTA RICA ALONG 17N78W 9N82W.  PATCHES OF ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
75W-83W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N84W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER E
CUBA NEAR 21N74W.  EXPECT THE STORM TO SLOWLY MOVE NNW OVER THE
BAHAMAS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL.  ALSO EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO MOVE INTO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS WITH CONVECTION.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N77W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF
FRONT.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC ALONG
32N45W 24N56W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE
TROUGH FROM 24N-32N BETWEEN 40W-49W.  A 1031 MB HIGH IS E OF THE
AZORES NEAR 38N23W.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO 27N40W.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 60W WITH
AN EMBEDDED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER E CUBA NEAR 21N74W.  A TROUGH
IS N OF 15N BETWEEN 45W-60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC NEAR 25N29W.  AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 19N20W.

$$
FORMOSA







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