[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 291202
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS CENTERED NEAR 18.3N 72.4W AT 29/1200 UTC
NEAR PORT AU PRINCE HAITI MOVING NNW AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 45
KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEE THE NHC FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS NOT ABLE TO FIND A WELL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CENTER BUT AIRCRAFT DROPSONDE DATA INDICATED THAT THE
CENTER HAS LIKELY REFORMED AGAIN TO THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
DEEP CONVECTION AND VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST OF HAITI. CONVECTION
HAS BECOME MORE ELONGATED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER HISPANIOLA FROM
17N-20N BETWEEN 68W-71W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ STRONG CONVECTION
IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN 65W-70W AND FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN 67W-72W
WITH CLUSTERS OF SIMILAR CONVECTION WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR THE VENZUELA/COLOMBIA BORDER TO
16N70W. NOEL WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR RAIN MAKER TODAY
ESPECIALLY FOR HISPANIOLA AND SE CUBA. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATER TODAY OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AS
THE NOEL CONTINUES TO MOVE NNW AS RAINS WILL INCREASE OVER
JAMAICA. THESE RAINS COULD CONTINUE TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES ESPECIALLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W S OF 17N MOVING W 15 KT. WAVE
CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT SURGE TYPE APPEARANCE AS THE CURVATURE
BROADENS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 51W-55W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 11N14W 7N25W 5N39W 8N53W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120/150
NM N OF THE AXIS FROM 26W-34W AND WITHIN 120 NM S OF THE AXIS
FROM 34W-42W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE
AREA FROM 2N-10N E OF 18W TO ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A NEAR STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA INTO THE GULF NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 25N88W TO THE E
BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N91W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY ALONG WITH A DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
120 NM NW OF THE FRONT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS S OF
23N FROM 89W-93W. THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS
FRONT AND STRONG SURFACE HIGH ANCHORED N OF THE REGION OVER THE
CENTRAL AND E US IS PRODUCING STRONG NE WINDS W OF THE FRONT
WITH GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE SW GULF AND SEA HEIGHTS ABOVE 8
FT. THE SE GULF IS MOSTLY RATHER CLEAR THIS MORNING WITH SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS
WHILE COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE FAR W GULF.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL REMAINS THE MAIN FOCUS THIS MORNING FOR THE
CARIBBEAN. FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES ARE A HIGH CONCERN OVER
THE MOUNTAINOUS ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA. THIS HEAVY RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO SHIFT W AFFECTING SE CUBA AND JAMAICA AS THE STORMS
MOVES NNW. ELSEWHERE...A NEAR STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
OVER THE W CARIBBEAN FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W 16N83W
TO NEAR 10N82W AND IS PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. A
LOW/MID LEVEL SWIRL IS OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA/COSTA RICA NEAR
10N81W VERY NEAR THE S END OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 12N W OF 81W TO THE COAST OF
CENTRAL AMERICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS DOT MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN COMPLIMENTS OF NOEL
BETWEEN 66W-80W KEEPING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN ACTIVE TONIGHT
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES WHICH ARE FOR THE
MOMENT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO
48 HOURS AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES THE ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E HALF OF THE US INTO THE W ATLC
DRAPING A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE W ATLC ALONG 32N75W ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA INTO THE GULF OF
MEXICO PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
90 NM NW OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH ASSOCIATED
WITH T.S. NOEL EXTENDS OVER THE SW ATLC S OF 26N FROM 60W-75W
PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW N OF THE SYSTEM. MODERATE/STRONG
SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC W OF 55W. THE
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT W OF THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE
WINDS OFF THE SE US COAST AND STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE N THE GULF
OF MEXICO. A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH A NEAR VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N50W AND 1010
MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 36N50W. A REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AS A
SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM EXTENDING
THROUGH 32N46W ALONG 27N51W TO 24N59W AND A SECOND SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N50W TO 29N59W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF
BOTH SURFACE TROUGHS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM E OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 15N50W NE TO BEYOND 32N32W PROVIDING UPPER
LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND TROPICAL MOISTURE TO GENERATE SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM
16N53W TO 31N41W. THE E ATLC REMAINS RATHER TRANQUIL UNDER
STRONG SURFACE RIDGE THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB HIGH OVER THE
AZORES COVERING THE E ATLC N OF 20N E OF 40W.

$$
WALLACE






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