[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 290002
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2330 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS CENTERED NEAR 16.7N 71.8W AT 29/0000 UTC
OR ABOUT 120 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND
ABOUT 270 NM SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA. NOEL HAS BEEN
MEANDERING...WITH LITTLE OVERALL MOTION...OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER OF
NOEL IS LOCATED NEAR THE SW EDGE OF A CONVECTIVE MASS WHICH
EXTENDS ABOUT 180 N AND NE OF THE CENTER...WHICH COVERS A GOOD
PORTION OF THE ISLAND OF HISPANIOLA. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS
STRONG IN NATURE WITH IR IMAGERY REVEALING CLOUD TOPS AS COLD AS
-85 TO -90 C. A LARGER BUT SLIGHTLY WEAKER CONVECTIVE AREA IS
LOCATED FURTHER E FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN 64W-69W WHICH INCLUDES
PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ADJUSTED W SLIGHTLY IN THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG
53W S OF 15N MOVING W 15-20 KT. THIS WAVE APPEARS TO HAVE PICKED
UP FORWARD SPEED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS STEERED BY STRONG ELY
FLOW ON THE SW SIDE OF A LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE. THE STRUCTURE OF
THE WAVE HAS GENERALLY CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS
HAVING A SURGE TYPE APPEARANCE WITH SLIGHT CURVATURE NEAR THE
WRN EDGE OF THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS HAVE INCREASED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
49W-53W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N14W 5N27W 4N41W 6N52W.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE
AXIS BETWEEN 19W-28W AND 32W-44W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL SYSTEM EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA TOWARD THE NW PART OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 28N83W
25N87W 22N90W. LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THIS BOUNDARY ALONG
WITH A SOMEWHAT DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 120 NM SE AND 180 NM NW
OF THE FRONT. THE TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS FRONT AND
STRONG HIGH PRES OVER THE MIDWEST IS PRODUCING STRONG NELY WINDS
W OF THE FRONT. THESE WINDS ARE STRONGEST IN THE SW GULF WHERE A
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT. THIS NELY FETCH IS PRODUCING
DANGEROUS SEA CONDITIONS WITH SEVERAL BUOYS REPORTING SEA
HEIGHTS ABOVE 8 FT. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF...W OF 93W...IS
UNDER STRONG SUBSIDENCE NEAR AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 95W/96W N OF
24N. A LOW-LEVEL SCATTERED STRATOCUMULUS DECK IS EVIDENT ON THE
LAST FEW VIS IMAGES OF THE EVENING ACROSS THE W GULF SIGNALING
THE COOL STABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL STORM NOEL IS THE HIGHLIGHT IN THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.
FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES ARE A HIGH CONCERN OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS ISLANDS OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. THIS HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT W AFFECTING SE CUBA AND JAMAICA. TOTAL
RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 8-12 INCHES IS EXPECTED OVER THESE AREAS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM TOTALS OF 20 INCHES. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3-5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO
RICO. REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS.

ELSEWHERE...A NEARLY STATIONARY LOW-LEVEL TROUGH IS ANALYZED IN
THE W CARIB ALONG 21N86W 16N83W AND INTO THE SW CARIB NEAR
11N81W...WHERE A WEAK SWIRL IS EVIDENT ON THE LAST FEW VIS
IMAGES OF THE DAY. WLY WIND REPORTS ACROSS THE SRN YUCATAN AND
PORTIONS OF THE E COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORT THE EXISTENCE
OF THE TROUGH AT THE SFC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ON A
SLIGHT DECREASING TREND WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS N
OF 16N. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE NEAR THE MID-LEVEL SWIRL
N OF PANAMA FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 80W-82W. THE AREA BETWEEN NOEL
AND THE TROUGHING DESCRIBED IS RELATIVELY QUIET...THOUGH
ISOLATED SHOWERS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
ABUNDANT MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO THE S OF AN UPPER HIGH
NEAR BERMUDA IS PROVIDING A MID-LEVEL CAP...SUPPRESSING
CONVECTION...ACROSS MUCH OF THE ATLC WATERS N OF 25N W OF ABOUT
55W. MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION...OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD...NEAR A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE
TIGHT PRES GRADIENT W OF THIS FRONT IS PRODUCING GALE FORCE
WINDS OFF THE SE COAST AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. REFER TO THE
GULF SECTION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES S
OF 22N BETWEEN 63W-74W ASSOCIATED WITH THE OUTER BANDS OF NOEL.
WINDS ARE ALSO QUITE STRONG IN THAT AREA WITH BUOYS AND SHIPS
REPORTING WINDS IN THE 20-30 KT RANGE. REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS
FORECAST MIAHSFAT2 FOR DETAILS.

FARTHER E...A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL ATLC
WITH A VERTICALLY STACKED LOW CENTERED NEAR 35N49W...ANALYZED
1010 MB AT THE SFC. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT STRETCHES SW
FROM THIS SYSTEM ALONG 32N46W 25N55W 26N64W. THERE ARE ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT...WITH MORE
SCATTERED ACTIVITY TO THE EAST GENERALLY N OF 23N BETWEEN
38W-44W IN AN UPPER DIFFLUENT AREA. THE E ATLC IS RATHER
TRANQUIL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG SFC RIDGING EXTENDING SWD
FROM HIGH PRES N OF THE AZORES AND AN AMPLIFIED ELONGATED
RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN. THERE IS SOME MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS
EMBEDDED ON THE UPWARD SIDE OF THE RIDGE BUT MOST OF THIS DRIES
OUT E OF 26W.

$$
CANGIALOSI


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