[Tropical] Tropical Cyclone Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

WTNT41 KNHC 281847
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM NOEL SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL162007
215 PM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

THIS SPECIAL ADVISORY IS BEING ISSUED TO REFLECT CHANGES IN THE
INITIAL AND FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY FOR TROPICAL STORM
NOEL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET TO 45 KT BASED ON 1000-FT
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT...AND SFMR ESTIMATES BETWEEN 45
AND 50 KT.  INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY
UPWARD.  THE AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CIRCULATION CENTER ABOUT 45 N MI
NORTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD AND EASTWARD TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE RELOCATION.

PLEASE NOTE THAT THE PRONUNCIATION FOR THE THIS STORM'S NAME IS
NOL...WITH A LONG O SOUND AND JUST ONE SYLLABLE...OR EXACTLY LIKE
THE WORD KNOLL.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      28/1815Z 16.9N  72.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 17.6N  72.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 18.7N  74.2W    55 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 19.9N  75.5W    60 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 21.1N  76.6W    50 KT...INLAND OVER CUBA
 72HR VT     31/1200Z 22.5N  77.5W    55 KT
 96HR VT     01/1200Z 23.5N  77.5W    55 KT
120HR VT     02/1200Z 25.5N  75.5W    50 KT

$$
FORECASTER KNABB



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