[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 281815
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS NEAR 16.5N 72.5W AT
28/1500 UTC.  THIS POSITION IS ABOUT 220 MILES...355
KM...SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
ABOUT 145 MILES...235 KM...SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI.  IT
WAS MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST 5 KT.  THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE IS 1003 MB.  THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30
KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.  PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY
UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.  HEAVY
RAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER WILL PASS OVER THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI AND WILL PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING
WITH MUDSLIDES DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS EVEN THOUGH THE
CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION MAY PASS TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA.
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 65W-73W.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.  THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS WAVE HAS REACHED
54W IN THE FORM OF A LOW CLOUD SURGE.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE FROM
6N-12N BETWEEN 44W-54W.

...THE ITCZ...
THE ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 4N30W 3N48W 2N55W.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA FROM
3N-9N BETWEEN 10W-25W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
1N-4N BETWEEN 25W-35W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W TO
THE W GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N84W.  A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO THE
CENTRAL GULF NEAR 22N89W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS WITHIN 120 N OF THE WARM FRONT.  THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
TIGHTENING OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN GULF THUS SURFACE WINDS
ARE NELY AT 20-25 KT.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SWLY FLOW COVERS
THE GULF.  SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE IS OVER THE E GULF E OF 92W.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF 92W.
EXPECT...THE FRONT TO DRIFT N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND IS ABOUT
TO BE UPGRADED TO STORM STATUS DUE TO DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHT.  SEE ABOVE.  FURTHER W...A SURFACE TROUGH
IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 15N80W 20N87W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS
FROM 15N-18N BETWEEN 81W-86W.  FURTHER S... SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN
80W-83W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE
NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N85W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS OVER E
CUBA NEAR 21N75W.  EXPECT THE STORM TO SLOWLY MOVE NW DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS ON RAINFALL.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N77W TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA NEAR 28N81W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM N OF
FRONT.  A 1012 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
32N47W.  A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS S ALONG 30N45W 25N50W
25N55W.  A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES W ALONG 25N60W
29N70W.  ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE FRONTS.
FURTHER E... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N
BETWEEN 39W-42W.  A 1029 MB HIGH IS E OF THE AZORES NEAR
38N23W.  A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SW TO 22N38W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS NEAR 29N69W.  A TROUGH IS N OF
20N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 28N27W.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE TROPICAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 8N29W.

$$
FORMOSA



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