[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 281108
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN WAS NEAR 16.2N 72.1W
AT 28/0900 UTC. THIS POSITION ALSO IS 187 NM / 346 KM SOUTHWEST
OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 143 NM /
270 KM SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. IT WAS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
NEAR 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM 12N JUST OF THE COAST OF
VENEZUELA TO THE MONA PASSAGE AND HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 64W AND
72W. PRECIPITATION EASILY MUST BE REACHING PUERTO RICO/HAITI/
AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM THE SOUTH RIGHT NOW. THE
WEST-NORTHWEST MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF THE CENTER WILL PASS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND
HAITI DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF
THE DEPRESSION MAY PASS TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. POSSIBLE
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS ALL THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W SOUTH OF 13N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF
A MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 8N TO 13N BETWEEN 42W AND 50W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS ALONG 53W/54W AT
28/0000 UTC WAS DROPPED FROM THE 28/0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS.
IT MAY BE ADDED TO THE MAP AGAIN IN THE FUTURE IF IT IS ABLE
TO BE DETECTED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY AND/OR ANY OTHER FORM OF
OBSERVATIONS.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 7N11W IN LIBERIA TO 6N22W TO 4N34W 3N44W INTO EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 2N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE
FROM 4N AT THE PRIME MERIDIAN...6N12W 5N25W 4N39W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE SAME LINE.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO MEXICO NEAR
21N99W TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BEYOND 30N80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
IS ON TOP OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN
85W AND 93W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS ABOUT 187 NM / 346 KM SOUTHWEST
OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND ABOUT 143 NM /
270 KM SOUTH OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. THE WEST-NORTHWEST
MOVEMENT OF THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HEAVY RAINS TO THE NORTH AND EAST
OF THE CENTER WILL PASS OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI
DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION MAY PASS TO THE SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. POSSIBLE
LINGERING SHOWERS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ACROSS ALL
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA
BROADCASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH
UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA
IS HELPING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF 14N71W 12N83W...AND IN THE NORTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA NORTH OF 16N WEST OF 81W. A 1010 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND TROUGH ARE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF
THE AREA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL-TO-FLORIDA STATIONARY FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHERN BAHAMAS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 30N73W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N47W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 14N50W. A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH 31N45W TO 26N50W TO 25N55W...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT
CONTINUES FROM 25N55W TO 30N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
24N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W...AND NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 38W
AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SPINNING AROUND THE
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N48W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS
ALONG 8N40W 20N36W 26N33W BEYOND 32N32W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN NORTHEASTERN
MOROCCO...CURVING TOWARD THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS TO 10N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N27W TO
23N34W TO 21N43W.

$$
MT




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