[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 280617
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0545 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN FORMED IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA
AT 28/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF T.D. SIXTEEN AT 28/0300 UTC WAS
NEAR 15.9N 71.5W. THIS POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 170 NM/314 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. IT WAS MOVING
WEST-NORTHWEST 6 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS
NEAR 1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE NEAR 30 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. PLEASE READ THE NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC AND/OR THE PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. NUMEROUS
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN SHORES/
COASTAL WATERS OF VENEZUELA TO THE MONA PASSAGE BETWEEN 66W AND
71W. PRECIPITATION EASILY MAY BE REACHING WESTERN PUERTO RICO
AND THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE CURRENT MOTION OF THE
TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAY BRING THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM NEAR
THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI ON SUNDAY DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WELL TO THE EAST OF THE COMPARATIVELY DEEPER
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA GO FROM
12N TO 17N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W...COVERING THE SOUTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS IN THAT AREA.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 43W/44W SOUTH OF 15N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF
A MIDDLE LEVEL DIFFLUENT WIND FLOW. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 41W AND 45W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 53W/54W SOUTH OF 11N
INTO FRENCH GUIANA AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL MOVING WEST
10 TO 15 KT. THE MIDDLE LEVEL FLOW ON TOP OF THE AREA OF THIS
WAVE EASTERLY AND SLIGHTLY ANTICYCLONIC...WHILE THE 200 MB
FLOW IS DECIDEDLY CYCLONIC IN A TROUGH.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 8N11W IN SIERRA LEONE TO 6N25W TO 2N42W INTO NORTHEASTERN
BRAZIL NEAR 2N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO LOCALLY STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N AT THE PRIME
MERIDIAN...6N14W 5N25W 4N33W 1N42W 2N50W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE RIDGE HAS DEVELOPED FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO MEXICO NEAR
21N99W TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS
FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO CENTRAL FLORIDA BEYOND 30N80W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT
IS ON TOP OF THE STATIONARY FRONT...AND SOUTH OF 26N BETWEEN
84W AND 92W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS WEST
AND NORTHWEST OF THE PRECIPITATION. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM EAST TEXAS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN IS ABOUT 170 NM/314 KM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI. THE CURRENT FORECAST
TRACK TAKES THE CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PLEASE STAY TUNED
TO LOCAL MEDIA BROADCASTS FOR MORE INFORMATION. A MIDDLE LEVEL
TROUGH UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA IS HELPING TO PRODUCE ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/POSSIBLE
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF A LINE FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W
TO JAMAICA TO THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF CUBA ALONG 80W.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL-TO-FLORIDA STATIONARY FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A SOUTHERN BAHAMAS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER TO 30N73W. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N48W
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 25N47W TO 13N50W. A COLD FRONT
PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 26N50W TO 26N55W...A DISSIPATING COLD
FRONT CONTINUES FROM 26N55W TO 30N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W...AND NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN
40W AND 43W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE SPINNING AROUND THE
1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 32N48W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
IS ALONG 8N40W 20N36W 26N33W BEYOND 32N32W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN
NORTHEASTERN MOROCCO...CURVING TOWARD THE CANARY ISLANDS
TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS TO 10N30W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES
THROUGH 32N27W TO 23N34W TO 21N43W.

$$
MT




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