[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 271104
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W SOUTH OF 14N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN
A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N38W...FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 39W AND 41W...
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN
38W AND 41W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 49W/50W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
7N TO 12N BETWEEN 47W AND 52W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY ATTRIBUTE ANY SPECIFIC
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THIS WAVE ALONE.
PRECIPITATION IS SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...INCLUDING
IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA...AND SOUTH OF 15N IN BETWEEN
80W AND THE EASTERN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 8N12W IN SIERRA LEONE TO 5N22W TO 5N37W 5N48W INTO NORTHERN
FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME NEAR 5N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
TO LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 7N11W 4N24W 1N35W 2N41W 6N48W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THIS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHOSE
SOUTHERNMOST POINT IS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA. A WARM FRONT
THAT HAS BEEN IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME STATIONARY
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 24N TO 26N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W...TO THE WEST OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF FLORIDA. R 23N80W TO SOUTHEASTERN
FLORIDA...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS... BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 77W AND
THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THIS PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING UNDER AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN
MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
IS WEST OF THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO PRECIPITATION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A TROUGH IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM PANAMA TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.
THE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TO A LOCATION ABOUT 90 NM WEST OF THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 120 NM
SOUTH OF PANAMA. A THIRD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
19N62W TO A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 16N70W TO 14N75W.
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 62W AND 69W
MOSTLY OVER THE OPEN CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS....AND FROM 13N TO 16N
BETWEEN 71W AND 73W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 80W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY ATTRIBUTE ANY SPECIFIC
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THIS WAVE ALONE.
PRECIPITATION IS SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W...INCLUDING
IN THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA...AND SOUTH OF 15N IN BETWEEN
80W AND THE EASTERN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS PRECIPITATION IS IN AN AREA OF BROAD
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON TOP OF IT...AIDING IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WARM FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...NORTHWESTWARD TO 25N70W AND BEYOND
32N73W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH/1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO-DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA WARM FRONT.
A COMPARATIVELY NEWER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH 32N47W TO 23N51W. THIS NEWER
TROUGH IS PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WATERS
ALONG 30N BETWEEN 45W AND 60W. THIS TROUGH IS NEWER IN THE SENSE
THAT IT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF 32N AFTER THE ALREADY-
ESTABLISHED DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO THE EAST OF IT. A DEEP LAYER
TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 25N47W TO 16N53W AND 14N54W.
A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 31N43W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 27N47W TO 24N49W AND 24N52W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST
MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 300 NM TO 500 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 14N.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 9N30W BEYOND 32N30W. A MIDDLE
TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN
NORTHEASTERN MOROCCO...CURVING TOWARD THE CANARY ISLANDS...AND
SOUTHWARD TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF MAURITANIA/SENEGAL. A SURFACE
RIDGE IS ALONG 19N41W 25N32W BEYOND 32N25W.

$$
MT




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