[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 270525
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT SAT OCT 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W SOUTH OF 14N MOVING
WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
9.5N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 36W AND 38W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 8N38.5W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W/49W SOUTH OF 12N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THIS WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM
7N TO 10N BETWEEN 47W AND 49W.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY ATTRIBUTE ANY SPECIFIC
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THIS WAVE ALONE.
PRECIPITATION IS JUST NORTH OF THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA...
AND IN BETWEEN 80W AND THE EASTERN COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA WITH
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM 8N13W IN SIERRA LEONE TO 5N24W TO 6N36W 5N43W INTO FRENCH
GUIANA AND SURINAME NEAR 4N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS TO
LOCALLY STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM TO 150 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 7N11W 4N24W 1N35W 2N41W 6N47W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI AND
NORTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. THIS IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT WHOSE
SOUTHERNMOST POINT IS THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF GEORGIA/THE
SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF ALABAMA. A WARM FRONT THAT HAS BEEN
MOVING NORTHWESTWARD/NORTHWARD FROM THE BAHAMAS TO FLORIDA
DURING THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS NOW EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL TO SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE BEYOND
THE DAYTONA BEACH AREA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM
24N TO 25N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/FEW STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ATLANTIC WATERS FROM THE CUBA COAST NEAR
23N80W TO SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA...TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 77W AND THE FLORIDA EAST COAST. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING UNDER AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO
THE EAST OF THE DEEP LAYER TROUGH IN MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IS WEST OF THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO PRECIPITATION.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
ONE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
FROM 17N TO 19N BETWEEN 83W AND 85W. A SECOND MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WITH A TROUGH IS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS/
FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM PANAMA TO 15N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W.
THE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN
TO A LOCATION ABOUT 90 NM WEST OF THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 120 NM
SOUTH OF PANAMA. A THIRD MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA
ABOUT 60 NM SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM
20N63W TO A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 16N69W TO 13N75W.
STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N TO 14N BETWEEN 61W AND
63W APPEARING TO REACH FROM SAINT VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
TO SAINT LUCIA. OTHER STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN WATERS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W...
FROM 16N TO 17.5N BETWEEN 64W AND 66W POSSIBLY/PROBABLY REACHING
SAINT CROIX...AND IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 14N TO 15N
BETWEEN 70W AND 72W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 79W SOUTH OF 16N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. IT IS NOT EASY ATTRIBUTE ANY SPECIFIC
AMOUNT OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THIS WAVE ALONE. STRONG
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W JUST
NORTH OF THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA IS IN AN AREA OF BROAD
LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER ON TOP OF IT...AIDING
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF PRECIPITATION.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ON TOP OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WARM FRONT. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...NORTHWESTWARD TO 25N70W AND BEYOND
32N73W. IS OFF THE E COAST OF FLORIDA FROM 32N80W TO BIMINI NEAR
28N80W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH/1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO-TO-DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA WARM FRONT.
A COMPARATIVELY NEWER MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH HAS MOVED
INTO THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH 32N47W TO 26N51W. THIS TROUGH
IS NEWER IN THE SENSE THAT IT IS MOVING INTO THE AREA SOUTH OF
32N AFTER THE ALREADY-ESTABLISHED DEEP LAYER TROUGH TO THE EAST
OF IT. A DEEP LAYER TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 25N47W TO
16N53W AND 14N54W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 30N45W.
A TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 30N45W TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER
NEAR 27N48W TO 25N50W AND 23N53W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 300 NM
TO 500 NM TO THE EAST OF THE TROUGH NORTH OF 14N. AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 9N30W BEYOND 32N30W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH GOES FROM 16N20W INTO SOUTHERN MOROCCO NEAR 23N15W
BEYOND 32N6W IN NORTHERN MOROCCO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS ALONG
20N40W 26N31W BEYOND 32N26W.

$$
MT



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