[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 260514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 30W/31W S OF 15N MOVING W 10-15 KT. VERY
WEAK LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V CURVATURE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE FROM 6N-9N.

TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW ALONG 45W S OF 13N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
WAVE IS AT THE LEADING EDGE OF AN E/W UPPER RIDGE WITH NO
INVERTED-V SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND NO ASSOCIATED DEEP
CONVECTION.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W/75W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE
REMAINS WEAK AND IS BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE MASKING ANY SIGNATURE
WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 7N10W 3N25W 7N47W 5N55W. SCATTERED
MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 8W-15W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS FROM 13W-37W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS INT HE FLORIDA STRAITS JUST OFF THE SE
COAST OF FLORIDA ACROSS W CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO STREAM N
ACROSS CUBA TO 25N E OF 84W OVER S FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS.
DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN
UPPER LOW OVER THE CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY COVERING THE GULF
WITH DRY STABLE CONTINENTAL AIR W OF 85W AND A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS PENSACOLA FLORIDA TO 25N87W WITH
BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE GULF E
OF 95W. SKIES REMAIN CLEAR W OF 95W FROM TEXAS TO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
SMALL UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W COVERING
THE AREA FROM 14N-21N BETWEEN 80W-86W. THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM
THE W ATLC AND FLORIDA STRAITS EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA NEAR HAVANA
OVER THE ISLE OF YOUTH TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N85W.
THIS UPPER LOW COMBINED WITH THE FRONT ARE GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N ACROSS CUBA
BETWEEN 79W-86W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 14N78W TO
NEAR 19N83W. SMALL UPPER LOW IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND
PUERTO RICO COVERING THE FAR NE CARIBBEAN WITH A SURFACE 1006 MB
LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N65W AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 16N E OF 66W ACROSS THE ISLANDS.
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN
ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA. UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE AND ABUNDANCE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY S OF 13N AND OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES. THE ITCZ AXIS
CROSSES SOUTH AMERICA AND JUST N OF PANAMA TO ACROSS COSTA RICA
INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ENHANCING THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND OVER PANAMA AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE STATIONARY FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH
CAROLINA/NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THROUGH 32N79W ALONG JUST OFF E
COAST OF S FLORIDA ALONG 24N80W INTO THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS W CUBA
NEAR HAVANA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 90 NM
ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 26N AND SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 26N ACROSS CUBA W OF 78W THROUGH
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE CARIBBEAN
EXTENDS A NARROW UPPER RIDGE E OF THE FRONT ACROSS E CUBA NEAR
20N77W N TO NEAR 32N76W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ENHANCING THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A SWATH OF DRY
STABLE AIR REMAINS OVER THE W ATLC WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE FROM
24N68W TO E OF BERMUDA BEYOND 32N67W. A SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF
25N FROM 55W-75W ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH N OF BERMUDA. SMALL
UPPER LOW IS N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO NEAR 19N65W
WITH A SURFACE 1006 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 19N65W GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN
57W-65W INCLUDING THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. A LARGE UPPER LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLC CENTERED NEAR 28N43W COVERING THE AREA N OF 20N
FROM 35W-70W WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 28N43W AND A
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 23N46W TO 19N51W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 29N FROM 39W-48W. THE
TYPICAL E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E TROPICAL ATLC
ALONG 11N E OF 45W WITH A BROADENING UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING
N ALONG 26W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E ATLC PROVIDING
ENOUGH UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS 150/175 NM OF LINE FROM 22N40W TO 33N34W.
A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING S OVER THE FAR E ATLC WITH A 1026 MB
SURFACE HIGH LOCATED NE OF THE AZORES.

$$
WALLACE




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