[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 252339
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT THU OCT 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W S OF 16N MOVING W 10-15 KT.
THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS AND
VORTICITY...AND THE UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCTS. IN ADDITION...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE WAVE
AXIS NEAR 8N.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM
8N-13N BETWEEN 26W-33W.

LOW AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS NOW ALONG 44W S OF 13N MOVING W
10-15 KT. THIS WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP WELL ON THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT
AND 850 MB VORTICITY.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
INVERTED-V PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE.  SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE WITHIN 250 NM E OF THE AXIS.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THE WAVE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY OVER WESTERN VENEZUELA AND NE COLOMBIA AS WELL AS OVER
HISPANIOLA.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N14W 8N20W 10N30W 12N43W 6N50W
6N60W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES... SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER
W AFRICA FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 10W-114W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 18W-21W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM
BIMINI NEAR 26N79W TO W CUBA NEAR 23N81W.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF FRONT.  WEAK SURFACE
RIDGING DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO PRODUCING
10 KT NWLY WINDS AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER N MISSISSIPPI NEAR
35N90W PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF.  A WEDGE
OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF
84W.  STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF N OF 20N AND W OF
84W.  EXPECT THE STATIONARY FRONT TO DRIFT W... BACK OVER
FLORIDA... DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND EXTEND FROM NE FLORIDA
TO W CUBA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.  SEE ABOVE.
MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  THE STATIONARY
FRONT OVER W CUBA CONTINUES S TO HONDURAS ALONG 23N81W 20N84W
16N85W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM JAMAICA TO CENTRAL CUBA FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN
77W-82W.  A SURFACE TROUGH IS FURTHER S ALONG 14N77W 16N81W
20N82W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE
TROUGH.  FURTHER W...A 1006 MB LOW IS OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 19N64W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS SE OF
THE CENTER FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 61W-64W...AND FROM 14N-16N
BETWEEN 59W-61W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N83W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS W
OF 79W.  RIDGING IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN IS
PRODUCING WLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 20N64W.  SIGNIFICANT
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA.  EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN
AND CENTRAL AMERICA E OF 86W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N78W TO BIMINI
NEAR 26N79W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 120NM E OF
FRONT.  A 1024 MB HIGH IS NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 35N62W.  A 1007 MB
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 27N43W.  A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS SW FROM THE LOW TO 22N45W 19N51W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDS FROM 27N-32N BETWEEN 34W-44W.   A WEAK 1017
MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 27N25W.  IN THE UPPER
LEVELS... A LARGE RIDGE IS W OF 70W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS
CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 20N64W.  A LARGE UPPER
LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N41W PRODUCING CYCLONIC
FLOW N OF 20N BETWEEN 30W-60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE
E ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA








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