[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

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AXNT20 KNHC 250514
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU OCT 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 26W S OF 16N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT
BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS MOVEMENT. THIS WAVE IS SHOWS A MID
LEVEL FEATURE WITH LITTLE INDICATION ON THE SURFACE. ANY
CONVECTION IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

TROPICAL WAVE WAS RELOCATED 12 HOURS AGO BY 8 DEGREES AND IS NOW
ALONG 41W/42W S OF 13N MOVING NEAR 15 KT. ANY CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W S OF 15N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT BASED ON
PAST 12 HOURS MOVEMENT. WAVE HAS BEEN WEAK AND IS BENEATH AN
UPPER RIDGE MASKING ANY SIGNATURE WITH NO ASSOCIATED CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N12W 10N24W 7N34W 7N49W 8N61W.
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVER THE AREA
FROM 2N-13N BETWEEN 24W-33W AND FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 33W-45W.
SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION
ARE FROM 1N-6N BETWEEN 2W-23W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE GULF EXTENDING ACROSS THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH LAKE OKEECHOBEE ACROSS THE MIDDLE
FLORIDA KEYS AND W CUBA NEAR HAVANA INTO THE CARIBBEAN.
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF A LINE FROM JUST S OF
FORT MYERS FLORIDA ACROSS W CUBA NEAR 23N84W THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXTENDS
FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI INTO THE GULF AND A
SUBTROPICAL JET WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT EXTENDING
FROM THE CENTRAL GULF 26N88W N OVER GEORGIA/ALABAMA. DRY STABLE
CONTINENTAL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH E OVER THE GULF WITH BROKEN/
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVERING MOST OF THE GULF EXCEPT
WITH CLEAR SKIES W OF 95W FROM TEXAS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
VERY SMALL UPPER LOW REMAINS ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N86W COVERING THE AREA S OF 19N W OF 84W. THE COLD FRONT FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS ACROSS W CUBA NEAR HAVANA TO THE
COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W. THIS IS GENERATING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND WIDELY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS W OF THE FRONT TO THE
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER NW VENEZUELA NW ALONG 16N75W TO
E CUBA NEAR 20N77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE COUPLED WITH THE
APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM 15N81W OVER CUBA NEAR
22N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE COAST OF COLOMBIA
NEAR 11N75W TO E OF THE COLD FRONT NEAR 17N83W. THE ITCZ AXIS
CROSSES THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E
PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA AND ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSED THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS IS NOW IN THE W ATLC EXTENDING OFF THE COAST NEAR
CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA S OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR
MELBOURNE FLORIDA ACROSS LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THROUGH THE FLORIDA
STRAITS INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE
CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A NARROW UPPER RIDGE E OF THE FRONT ACROSS
CUBA NEAR 23N79W N TO NEAR 33N77W PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENCE TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS N OF 27N
W OF 75W AND BETWEEN CUBA AND THE BAHAMA ISLANDS W OF 76W INTO
THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROAD UPPER HIGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC
N OF THE REGION COVERING THE AREA N OF 26N FROM 50W-70W WITH DRY
STABLE AIR AND A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NE OF
BERMUDA NEAR 35N59W. AN UPPER LOW REMAINS NE OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 19N59W COVERING THE AREA FROM 14N-22N BETWEEN
55W-63W INCLUDING THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND GENERATING CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N-22N BETWEEN
56W-65W WITH A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 19N61W. A LARGE
UPPER LOW IS IN THE E.CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 29N43W COVERING THE AREA
N OF 20N FROM 30W-50W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO THE
REGION NEAR 32N33W ALONG 27N34W TO 21N41W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER A BROAD AREA N OF 19N BETWEEN
26W-41W. THE TYPICAL E/W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS OVER THE E
TROPICAL ATLC ALONG 11N E OF 35W WITH A NARROW UPPER RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING N ALONG 25W TO 33N COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE E
ATLC. A WEAK 1018 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 26N21W.

$$
WALLACE


WWWW
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