[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 242352
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT WED OCT 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 24W
S OF 17N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.  THE WAVE SHOWS UP WELL ON THE
UW-CIMSS TPW PRODUCT AND 850 MB VORTICITY.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-13N BETWEEN 20W-31W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 40W S OF 13N MOVING W AT 10-15 KT.  THIS
WAVE ALSO SHOWS UP WELL ON THE MIMIC-TPW PRODUCT AND 850 MB
VORTICITY BUT WITH LESS AMPLITUDE.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-10N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 68W S OF 18N MOVING W AT 5-10 KT.  WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS IS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA
FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 67W-70W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N10W 6N15W 10N24W 7N30W 9N40W 7N50W
8N60W.  BESIDES THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL
WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W
AFRICA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 11W-15W.  FURTHER S OVER THE E
ATLANTIC...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 13W-17W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO W
CUBA AND THEN TO HONDURAS ALONG 31N80W 24N82W 20N90W 16N87W
MOVING SLOWLY E.  CONVECTION N OF 24N HAS DIMINISHED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS 120 NM W OF THE FRONT.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS HOWEVER OVER THE STRAITS OF
FLORIDA AND W CUBA FROM 22N-24N BETWEEN 80W-84W.  15-25 KT NWLY
WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE ONLY 15-20 KT SLY WINDS ARE IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA.  THE NW GULF
HAS FAIR SKIES N OF 23N AND W OF 90W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER MISSISSIPPI NEAR 33N90W
PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE GULF.  A WEDGE OF
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER FLORIDA AND THE E GULF E OF
85W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO DRIFT E DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS
AND EXTEND FROM THE BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA WITH CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA.  SEE ABOVE.
MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  FURTHER W...A 1008
MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 14N77W.  A SURFACE
TROUGH EXTENDS NW FROM THE LOW TO NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AT
19N83W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 75W-77W.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF CUBA FROM 16N-22N
BETWEEN 79W-83W.   FURTHER W...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 85W-88W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N86W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 80W.  RIDGING IS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING WLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW.  SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA EXCEPT FOR
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS WHERE SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.  A SMALL UPPER
LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N60W.
EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL E OF 88W DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1023 MB HIGH IS NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N59W.  A 1003 MB LOW IS
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 34N34W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS
S FROM THE LOW TO 30N33W 21N40W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION
EXTENDS FROM 27N-30N BETWEEN 32W-35W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 25W-28W.  A WEAK 1017 MB
HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 26N22W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
A LARGE RIDGE IS W OF 70W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 19N60W.  A LARGE UPPER LOW IS OVER
THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 30N44W PRODUCING CYCLONIC FLOW N OF
20N BETWEEN 30W-50W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 10N AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA




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