[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241033
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED OCT 24 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 32W S OF 13N MOVING W 5-10 KT. BROAD WEAK
LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION
FROM 8N-12N BETWEEN 28W-32W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 66W S OF 14N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS
BENEATH AN UPPER RIDGE LIMITING ANY DEEP CONVECTION.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 8N23W 9N31W 7N48W 8N60W.
SCATTERED/NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM N OF THE
ITCZ AXIS FROM 24W-28W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG
CONVECTION COVER THE AREA FROM 2N-10N E OF 24W TO INLAND OVER W
AFRICA. SMALL CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM
4N-10N BETWEEN 24W-46W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE E GULF EXTENDING INTO THE
GULF ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR 29N83W ALONG 25N85W TO OVER THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AND NE GUATEMALA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY N OF 24N AND S OF
24N TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN FROM 85W-88W WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT. DEEP LAYERED TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE GULF AND A SUBTROPICAL JET
WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 TO 110 KT HAS SHIFTED E EXTENDING
FROM NEAR 27N92W N OVER ALABAMA/MISSISSIPPI. GALE FORCE
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS REMAIN OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AN
UPPER HIGH IN THE W ATLC EXTENDS A RIDGE TO ACROSS FLORIDA. DRY
STABLE CONTINENTAL AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH E OVER THE NW GULF
CLEARING SKIES W OF A LINE FROM THE MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA BORDER
ALONG 26N93W TO N OF TAMPICO MEXICO NEAR 23N98W.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A SMALL UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 18N86W
COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N W OF 82W TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN AND
CENTRAL AMERICA AND N OF 20N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL W OF
85W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM AN UPPER HIGH OVER
COLOMBIA NW ALONG 15N75W TO W CUBA NEAR THE ISLE OF YOUTH GIVING
THE SW CARIBBEAN SOUTHERLY FLOW WHILE THE REMAINDER HAS WESTERLY
FLOW. A CONVERGENCE LINE IS ALONG THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BETWEEN
THE UPPER FLOW AND LOW LEVEL EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COUPLED WITH A
SMALL 1009 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 12N77W AND A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING NW TO 18N83W ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM OVER COLOMBIA NEAR
10N71W TO 16N77W. THE ITCZ AXIS CROSSES THE N PORTION OF SOUTH
AMERICA AND PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND OVER
SOUTH AMERICA AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS.
LIGHT/MODERATE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE
USHERING IN LOW LEVEL POPCORN TYPE SHOWERS OVER THE REMAINDER OF
THE CARIBBEAN. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
S OF 15N FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO 65W ARE DUE TO UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER HIGH NE OF BERMUDA AND EXTENDS AN UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE W ATLC N OF 26N FROM 50W TO OVER FLORIDA AND COVERING THE
AREA WITH DRY STABLE AIR AND A SURFACE RIDGE ALSO COVERS THE
SAME AREA ANCHORED BY A 1024 MB HIGH NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N60W.
AN UPPER LOW IS NE OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 20N61W
COVERING THE AREA FROM 16N-23N BETWEEN 57W-65W INCLUDING THE
LESSER ANTILLES AND GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 12N60W ALONG 17N56W
TO NEAR 23N65W WITH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW LOCATED NEAR 17N60W. A
LARGE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 23N
FROM 25W-44W WITH A 1002 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 33N34W AND
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 26N34W TO 21N40W. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 75 NM
OF LINE FROM 27N27W TO BEYOND 32N29W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS
DOTTING THE AREA FROM 24N TO BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 29W-42W. WEAK
UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA N OF 15N ACROSS
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO BEYOND 32N20W COVERING THE REMAINDER OF
THE E ATLC. A WEAK 1016 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED NEAR 25N21W.

$$
WALLACE


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