[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232358
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE OCT 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
A NEW TROPICAL WAVE IS INTRODUCED ALONG 31W S OF 12N MOVING W AT
10 KT.  THIS IS A LOW AMPLITUDE WAVE THAT PROTRUDES N OF THE
ITCZ IN A SMALL INVERTED-V.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 26W-34W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 63W S OF 21N MOVING W 10 KT.  A LARGE
AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER EXTENDS FROM THE LESSER ANTILLES
EASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC FOR SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES DUE TO
THIS TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION.  SCATTERED
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
12N-15N BETWEEN 57W-62W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
IS FURTHER N E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS FROM 16N-22N BETWEEN
54W-60W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 7N20W 8N30W 4N50W 4N54W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM
7N-13N BETWEEN 12W-15W.  SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 17W-21W...AND FROM 8N-10N
BETWEEN 23W-26W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-4N
BETWEEN 37W-39W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A STRONG COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ALONG 31N85W 26N87W 20N90W
MOVING E.  UNLIKE YESTERDAY...CONVECTION N OF 20N HAS DIMINISHED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS 120 NM W OF THE FRONT.  SCATTERED MODERATE
TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS HOWEVER OVER THE E BAY OF
CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN
89W-93W.  25-50 KT NLY STORM FORCE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT
WHILE ONLY 10-15 KT SLY WINDS ARE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.  IN
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER E TEXAS
NEAR 33N94W PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE W GULF W
OF 90W.  AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA
NEAR 35N76W PRODUCING SELY WINDS OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W.  A
WEDGE OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S
OF 25N.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA NEAR
30N80W TO W CUBA NEAR 22N84W IN 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.  WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
DIMINISH TO 25 KT DUE TO THE LESSENING OF THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SEA.  SEE ABOVE.
MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  FURTHER W...WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FROM
11N-18N BETWEEN 74W-80W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
INLAND OVER GUATEMALA FROM 13N-17N BETWEEN 89W-92W.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF
HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF 80W.  RIDGING IS
OVER THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING WLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE S OF 16N.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 20N63W.  EXPECT
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
CARIBBEAN S OF 17N DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1024 MB HIGH IS NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 34N63W.  A 1006 MB LOW
IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 33N34W.  A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 25N35W 19N40W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION EXTENDS WELL E OF THE TROUGH FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN
29W-31W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 27N-29N
BETWEEN 28W-30W.  A WEAK 1016 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC
NEAR 25N22W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE RIDGE IS W OF 70W.
A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
NEAR 20N63W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN
30W-60W.  AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 10N
AND E OF 30W.

$$
FORMOSA





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