[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 230007
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT MON OCT 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 58W/59W S OF 21N MOVING W NEAR 10 KT.
SATELLITE IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW CYCLONIC TURNING ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS NEAR 15N.  MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS.  PATCHES OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10N-22N BETWEEN 51W-60W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 10N13W 6N30W 11N58W 10N63W.  BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 10W-14W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 17W-26W.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 27W-40W.  SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS NEAR TRINIDAD AND SOUTH AMERICA FROM 7N-11N
BETWEEN 60W-64W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM
SW LOUISIANA TO NE MEXICO ALONG 30N93W 26N95W 23N99W MOVING SE.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION EXTENDS 180 NM E OF THE
FRONT.  25-35 KT NLY GALE WINDS ARE BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE ONLY
15-20 KT SLY WINDS ARE IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.  A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH RUNS S TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG 24N94W 16N95W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 19N-21N BETWEEN 95W-97W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS FURTHER E FROM
18N-20N BETWEEN 91W-92W.  A 50 KT STORM EVENT IS FORECAST TO
BEGIN TOMORROW EVENING BEHIND THE FRONT.  A WARM FRONT CONTINUES
TO PUSH N OVER N FLORIDA ALONG 31N84W 28N80W WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS
CENTERED OVER THE NE GULF NEAR 29N83W.  ABUNDANT UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF EXCEPT FOE THE SE GULF S OF 25N
AND E OF 90W.  EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO EXTEND FROM N FLORIDA TO
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN 24 HOURS WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.  SEE ABOVE.
MODERATE TRADES ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA.  ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN
75W-82W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED
OFF THE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 15N82W.  CYCLONIC FLOW IS W OF
74W.  RIDGING OVER THE E CARIBBEAN IS PRODUCING SWLY UPPER LEVEL
FLOW WITH SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN S OF 17N
DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC ALONG 32N55W 28N70W
28N80W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT.  A
1028 MB HIGH IS N OF THE AREA OFF THE VIRGINIA COAST NEAR
37N68W.  A 1011 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR
28N35W.  A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 23N36W
20N40W.  WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXTENDS 180 NM E
OF THE TROUGH.  UN THE UPPER LEVELS... A LARGE RIDGE IS W
OF65W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS NEAR 21N60W.  A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FURTHER E NEAR
28N38W.  A SMALL UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF W
AFRICA NEAR 24N17W.

$$
FORMOSA





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