[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 211105
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN OCT 21 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1015 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 52W/53W SOUTH OF 18N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N
TO 15N BETWEEN 48W AND 49.5W...AND FROM 11N TO 12N BETWEEN 46W
AND 48W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 9N TO 17N BETWEEN 45W AND 57W.
UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS...FROM LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW...ARE BLOWING OVER THE TOP OF THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
FROM SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N12W TO 6N26W TO 9N43W AND 10N63W.
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 17W AND 23W. ISOLATED
MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W...
AND FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W. OTHER PRECIPITATION
NEAR THE ITCZ IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 51W/52W TROPICAL WAVE.

DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE LONGWAVE DEEP LAYER TROUGH FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS SEPARATED.
THE BASE OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA. WHAT IS LEFT OF THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE TROUGH IS IN
THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW MOVES
AWAY FROM T.S. KIKO IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN ACROSS INTERIOR
MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SEPARATE MIDDLE
LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE EAST CENTRAL GULF
WATERS. IT LOOKS LIKE THIS CYCLONIC CENTER IS THE SAME ONE THAT
WAS JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA 24 HOURS AGO. UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW SHOOTS TO THE NORTHEAST...ACROSS FLORIDA
INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AS PART OF THE FLOW AROUND A LARGER
SCALE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES THROUGH THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W TO THE FLORIDA EAST COAST NEAR 27N
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N84W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES
FROM 26N84W TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF WATERS...AND TO 23N97W.
ONE CELL OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS IN THE FLORIDA KEYS
WITHIN A 15 TO 30 NM RADIUS OF 25N81.5W...IN THE GULF WATERS
WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 25N86.5W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
CORNER OF THE AREA SOUTH OF 19.5N BETWEEN 93W AND 96W ALONG THE
MEXICO COAST. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
ARE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE EAST-CENTRAL COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGH.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE
AREA...EVENTUALLY CROSSING ON TOP OF WESTERN CUBA AND CONTINUING
ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE REST OF THE
CARIBBEAN SEA IS COVERED BY LARGE SCALE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC FLOW THAT IS DIGGING SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE AREA.
AT LEAST A FEW CYCLONIC SWIRLS ARE PRESENT. WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE SHOWERS/ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 14N
TO COLOMBIA BETWEEN 72W AND 78W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE
ELSEWHERE EAST OF 77W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE EAST-CENTRAL
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW
PRESSURE CENTER AND SURFACE TROUGH. WHATEVER REMNANT
PRECIPITATION THAT WAS LEFT FROM 14N TO 17N BETWEEN 56W AND 59W
SIX TO EIGHT HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED EVEN MORE
DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STRETCHES FROM WESTERN CUBA ACROSS CUBA
INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN BEYOND 33N68W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING
THROUGH 32N40W TO 26N55W BEYOND 20N61W INTO THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH PASSING
THROUGH 32N31W TO 25N42W TO 24N56W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N60W 26N40W BEYOND
32N31W. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE STARTS IN THE
AREA ON TOP OF THE 52W/53W TROPICAL WAVE...AND CURVES TO 22N38W
AND BEYOND 32N31W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA
TROUGH. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 30N10W TO
THE CANARY ISLANDS TO 24N18W TO 23N20W.

$$
MT




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