[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 201107
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SAT OCT 20 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 47W/48W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW
IS BLOWING ACROSS THE TOP OF THIS WAVE RIPPING APART THE TOPS
OF ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION CLOUDS.

A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 18N
IN BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SURROUNDS THIS WAVE.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND
A NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 60W AND 77W. THE WHOLE AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA.

...THE ITCZ...
10N14W 7N26W 8N45W 9N60W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 8.5N TO 10.5N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W...AND
FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 48W AND 50W. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS
ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 14W AND 16W...AND FROM
3N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 57W.

DISCUSSION...
THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT ARE MOVING
THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S.A. THE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL GULF WATERS TO THE
MEXICO COAST NEAR 23N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 200 NM
EAST OF THE FRONT NORTH OF 27N...WITHIN 100 NM FROM 22N TO
27N...AND ENDING UP NEAR THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AT ITS
SOUTHERN END. THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA 24 HOURS AGO HAS
MOVED INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NORTH OF 21N MOVING ACROSS CUBA BETWEEN 81W AND ITS WESTERNMOST
POINT...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA NEAR THE
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC FROM 18N TO 21.5N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W
IN SOUTHERN COASTAL MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE EAST
OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM CUBA TO 28N...
NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER.
SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EVEN ARE REACHING THE ATLANTIC
OCEAN...NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS TO 32N WEST OF 75W...ON THE
WESTERN SIDE OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT GOES FROM THE
NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND 33N73W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 75W/76W SOUTH OF 18N
IN BETWEEN HAITI AND JAMAICA MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SURROUNDS THIS WAVE.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING AROUND
A NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER.
THE CYCLONIC FLOW IS BETWEEN 60W AND 77W. THE WHOLE AREA OF
CYCLONIC FLOW IS MOVING FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWARD
INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. STRONG SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS WESTERN
CUBA. ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS EXTEND FROM PANAMA/COSTA RICA TO
NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 57W AND 61W
IN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE
CYCLONIC FLOW THAT HAS MOVED SOUTHWARD FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.
THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FROM 24 HOURS AGO HAS MOVED
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND IS NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.
ITCZ SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 11N
BETWEEN 76W NEAR COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA/PANAMA.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TROUGH
SUPPORTS A 1017 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 31N43W...AND
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 23N53W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ARE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 35W AND
55W...AND NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 30W AND 45W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW WITH A RIDGE STARTS IN THE AREA ON TOP OF
THE 47W/48W TROPICAL WAVE...AND CURVES TO 20N40W 26N38W AND
BEYOND 32N32W. THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN
BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROUGH.
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH STARTS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER IN NORTHERN MOROCCO/WESTERN ALGERIA...
REACHING THE NORTHERN HALF OF MAURITANIA.

$$
MT




This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net