[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 200001
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 45W S OF 17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THE
TROPICAL WAVE WAS REPOSITIONED BACK A FEW DEGREES TO MATCH UP
BETTER WITH THE APEX OF THE LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V SIGNATURE AND
THE NEW MASS OF CONVECTION THAT FORMED.  WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 40W-47W...AND FROM
4N-9N BETWEEN 38W-42W.

WEAK TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 73W S OF
17N MOVING W 10-15 KT.  THIS WAVE HAS BEEN CHALLENGING TO TRACK
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE CURRENT POSITION SOLELY
BASED ON FORWARD CONTINUITY.  CONVECTION IS OVER LAKE MARACAIBO
VENEZUELA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 70W-72W.

...THE ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N13W 6N30W 8N46W 6N56W.  BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER W AFRICA
FROM 7N-13N BETWEEN 7W-14W.  ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS
FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 33W-36W...AND E OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS FROM
12N-16N BETWEEN 55W-60W.

DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 2100 UTC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
TO NE MEXICO ALONG 31N86W 27N90W 25N95W 25N99W.  A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH EXTENDS FROM N FLORIDA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE ALONG
31N83W 24N90W 20N96W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
21N-25N BETWEEN 92W-96W...AND FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 85W-88W.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS
OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 80W-84W.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA FROM
26N-29N BETWEEN 80W-81W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF A
TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  A
SMALL UPPER LEVEL LOW IS N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N87W
WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE E OF 90W. EXPECT...
CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE E GULF AND FLORIDA DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS DUE TO THE COLD FRONT AND PREFRONTAL TROUGH.

CARIBBEAN SEA...
A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN.  SEE ABOVE.
MODERATE TRADEWINDS DOMINATE THE CARIBBEAN WITH MOSTLY FAIR
WEATHER OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 75W.  PATCHES OF SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA W OF 75W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR
22N87W MOVING W.  UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THE CENTER IS
HELPING TO PRODUCE THE CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN.
AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W.  EXPECT... THE TROPICAL WAVE TO
MOVE W OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  ALSO EXPECT THE CONVECTION OVER
THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN TO MOVE W...AND A NEW BATCH OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE TO MOVE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC NE OF BERMUDA NEAR 33N63W
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER.  A 1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC NEAR 30N41W.  A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS SW
FROM THE LOW TO 24N50W 23N58W.  SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60
NM OF THE FRONT.  A 1021 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR
27N30W.  IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED N
OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 28N75W.  ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 24N AND W
OF 60W.  THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL
ATLANTIC N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-60W.  A RIDGE IS OVER THE E
ATLANTIC N OF 20N AND E OF 40W.  IN THE TROPICS...A LARGE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 12N36W.  ANTICYCLONIC
FLOW IS FROM 5N-20N BETWEEN 20W-55W.

$$
FORMOSA



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