[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191106
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI OCT 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS...
WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...AND RADAR.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 48W SOUTH OF 17N
MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE IS NOT AS APPARENT IN
SATELLITE IMAGERY NOW AS IT WAS 24 HOURS AGO. UPPER LEVEL
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE TOP OF THIS WAVE.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DIRECTLY RELATED
TO THIS WAVE.

A CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W/71W SOUTH
OF THE EASTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MOVING WEST 10 TO 15 KT.
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ACCOMPANIES THIS WAVE.
DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SURROUNDS THIS WAVE.
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THIS WAVE.

...THE ITCZ...
7N12W 3N30W 5N45W 6N50W 7N62W. SCATTERED STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N44W 8N41W 10N38W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W
AND 40W...AND FROM 7N TO 15N BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AND ACCOMPANYING COLD FRONT HAVE MOVED
THROUGH MISSOURI INTO LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. DRY AIR/SUBSIDENCE
COVER ALL AREAS OF MEXICO NORTH OF 24N. THE COLD FRONT HAS
REACHED THE TEXAS COAST...SLOWING DOWN COMPARATIVELY AS THE PART
OF THE FRONT IN LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI HAS RACED AHEAD OF THE
SOUTHERN PART. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER IS MOVING FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA AT THIS MOMENT. CYCLONIC FLOW FROM THIS FEATURE
COVERS THE GULF WATERS SOUTH OF 27N EAST OF 90W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO EAST OF 90W ON TOP
OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CYCLONIC CENTER. STRONG SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE COLD FRONT...WITHIN 30 NM
ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N94W 31N87W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
THE 70W/71W TROPICAL WAVE IS NOT ACCOMPANIED BY ANY DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS
COMPARATIVELY WEAK. ONLY THE 1012 MB ISOBAR IS LOCATED IN THE
CENTER OF THE AREA...FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER TO WESTERN
CUBA AND BEYOND. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER REMAINS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...MOVING
SLOWLY ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A EAST-WEST ORIENTED MIDDLE TO
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N EAST OF VENEZUELA. SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN THE COLOMBIA COAST
AND 80W...AND IN A THIN LINE FROM 15N80W TO WESTERN CUBA...
UNDER UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N51W TO 26N53W
TO 19N63W JUST ENTERING THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 30N33W TO 26N47W TO
23N62W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS FROM 20N
TO 23N BETWEEN 59W AND 63W....AND WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF
28N28W 29N31W 30N35W 30N38W 26N48W...AND WITHIN 90 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF 26N49W 23N58W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM 19N41W TO
A 1020 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 28N27W...AND BEYOND NEAR
32N28W. A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 27N29W TO 22N33W TO 17N34W. BROAD
SYNOPTIC SCALE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS EVERYTHING EAST OF 50W.
A WELL-DEFINED MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
IS INLAND IN ALGERIA/CENTRAL MOROCCO/NORTHERN MAURITANIA.

$$
MT




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